During the past 7 days on SCM, there have been constant sales between $0.12 (3 ref) and $0.16 (4 ref).

Proof pic: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716014614298755085/724365456076570634/proof_of_crate_18.PNG

SCM link: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Series%20%2318

I'll also mention that there are sales on marketplace.tf that are higher than $0.12-0.16 and not daily, but this still proves that the estimated value at 0.33 ref is too low in this case https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5022;6;c18 . people are paying more on marketplace.tf because of their low supply