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3 recent sales @ 7, 7.5, 8k
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30135;5;u59
Sales at $14, 15, 16 in the past 2mo
Bulk sale (unusable)
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087761315#!/compare/1589932800/1590796800 (untraceable link)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304302520#!/compare/1589846400/1589932800
Sold for Galactic Gateway Vampire Vanquisher (55k) alongside 10k pure, C.Heart Cool Capuchon (18.5k outdated, buyer at 12k), Atomic A Head Full of Air (7.5k), S. Lights Spiky Viking (14.5k)
55-10-7.5-14.5-18.5 = 4.5k using outdated Cool Capuchon price
55-10-7.5-14.5-12 = 11k using highest Cool Capuchon buyer price
Because the Capuchon is priced according to the highest buyer, it could potentially be more valuable. This means that it should be valued at 12 or higher, meaning the Wet Works, in this trade should be valued at 11k or lower. As this is indeterminate, I can’t use this sale.
Unsold at 8k (11 days)
https://backpack.tf/item/7956307405
https://i.imgur.com/iFMEDzR.png — also shows buyers at 6.3-6.7k
Capping at 8k.
Untraceable #1:
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148469379#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400 - no corresponding items
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400 - >1200 removed items
Untraceable #2:
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304302520#!/compare/1590624000/1590710400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148469379#!/compare/1590624000/1590969600
Almost certainly sold for cash, user's name is CASHOUT20-25% OFF.
Buyers at 6.3-6.7k caps the low end at 7 or at lowest 6.5, but there are no sales to support 6.5.
Unsold at 8k caps the high end at 8, and there are no sales to support any higher.
Mini for C.Heart Capuchion:
Untraceable #1: https://backpack.tf/item/7661230408
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104767884#!/compare/1587945600/1588032000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043059273#!/compare/1588032000/1592568405
Untraceable #2: https://backpack.tf/item/7661230408
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1589760000/1589846400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087761315#!/compare/1588291200/1589932800
Highest buyer is 12k, meaning value is roughly 12k+.
Summary
Sales at 7k, 7.5k, 8k
Bulk sale where it’s valued at 11k or less (indeterminate, unusable)
Unsold at 8k (cap)
you should take key price on the day of the sale therefore the marketplace sales would be $15.99 (8 keys), $14.99 (7.5 keys), $13.99 (7.5 keys), $13.99 (7.5 keys)
okay that makes sense, I'll resuggest at 7.5-8 in that case