Looking at this item

Sale #1

from 8714736223 to 8741738007

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000096891#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200

8 keys?

Sale #2

from 8741738007 to 8743065279

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198880323028#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200

untrace

Sale #3

from 8743065279 to 8743347514

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198880323028#!/compare/1588291200/1588377600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200

untrace

Sale #4

from 8743347514 to 8909475843

probably an auction bot :S

Sale #5

from 8909475843 to 8910536768

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198242646048#!/compare/1592265600/1592352000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1592265600/1592352000

untrace

Sale #6

from 8910536768 to 8915914368

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050762233#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

Disco Beat Down Prancer's Pride (11-14 keys) + ~1 key = 14 keys

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Looking at this item

Sale #7

from 8715225672 to 8816062344 (skipping 8719538829)

mp sale

Sale #8

from 8816062344 to 8892955089

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195823355#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198397618117#!/compare/1591747200/1591920000

16 keys? doesn't really look like it :S

Sale #9

from 8892955089 to 8916732908

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195823355#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109452231#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

untrace

Sale #10

from 8916732908 to 8925999658

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109452231#!/compare/1592697600/1592784000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1592697600/1592784000

untrace/bulk

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Looking at this item

Sale #11

from 8923042408 to 8925640626

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042746603#!/compare/1592697600/1592784000

11 keys + 26 ref = 11 keys

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Looking at this item

Sale #12

from 8523867682 to 8563642898(skipping 8530653926)

mp sale

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Looking at this item

NO SALE

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Looking at this item

NO SALE

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Looking at this item

Sale #13

from 8609053553 to 8644475369

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252848814#!/compare/1585440000/1585958400

untrace/bulk

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Looking at Marketplace.tf sales

Mar 27: 21.00 USD = 12 keys

Apr 21: 27.00 USD = 15 keys

Apr 23: 12.00 USD = 7 keys

May 21: 31.99 USD = 17 keys

May 27: 21.00 USD = 11 keys

Jun 7: 27.95 USD = 14 keys

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LISTINGS

Top mp buyer for 16.55 USD = 9 keys

bp listings: https://prnt.sc/t5cv32

Setting low end to min 10 keys because of the highlighted buyer.

Sellers are not old enough to convince me. Newer sales above 12 keys show they are probably quick selling.

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Considering the past 2 months

Going with 11-14 keys