The Sale:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1587686400/1587772800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1587686400/1587772800

https://backpack.tf/item/7955469339

8 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/223;5;u57

$15.52, April 13th

$21.90, May 15th

$19.99, May 23rd

$19.99, May 26th

$19.99, June 5th

Couldn’t find any of the histories.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-13&price=15.52 - $15.52 / $1.72 = 9.02 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLVZP6WG - no important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-15&price=21.9 - $21.9 / $1.91 = 11.47 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WX8QRJ7 - May have been one of these sellers, but I can’t confirm.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-23&price=19.99 - $19.99 / $1.90 = 10.52 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/466KNXL0 - No important B/O, unless the seller had spares

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-26&price=19.99 - $19.99 / $1.93 = 10.36 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4R0OO9N2 - No important B/O, unless the seller had spares

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-05&price=19.99 - $19.99 / $1.96 = 10.20 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQ99PJ6 - No B/Os

After rounding, we have:

10 keys (2x)

11 keys (2x)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7955727873 (#1-6)

https://backpack.tf/item/7955469339 (#7 & #8)

https://backpack.tf/item/7863524712 - scrap/mannco

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192060663#!/compare/1584748800/1585180800

Subatomic UT matches, but I feel that may be coincidental, as the seller does a lot of trades daily. If it were true however, it’s likely that the B/O would’ve been significantly lower than what the sale works out to be anyways. The buyer also dumped onto scrap afterwards, according to the item history.

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263599385#!/compare/1586736000/1586822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198506927829#!/compare/1586649600/1586822400

Only a couple keys match on the buyer’s end, the spelled grenade launcher doesn’t appear to have been involved.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1590105600/1590192000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174751835#!/compare/1590019200/1591142400

#4

Sold with a key for Miami Nights Burning Bandana

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174751835#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316121768#!/compare/1591660800/1591833600

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316121768#!/compare/1591920000/1592438400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077730629#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400

Item went to an alt afterwards.

#6

Sold for 7 keys + 2 ref?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198506927829#!/compare/1586822400/1586908800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1586822400/1586908800

Oddly low considering there are buy orders at 8+ keys, was most likely around that realistically. If not, it’s an outlier anyways.

#7

Sold for 8 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1589673600/1589760000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039235419#!/compare/1589760000/1589846400

I’m convinced there was at least 1 more key involved. It does look like Rubi bought some ref with keys later that day, it’s possible that keys from this sale were involved.

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039235419#!/compare/1589760000/1589846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1589673600/1589760000

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/7f9NxFV.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7955727873 - 14 keys

Sales at:

8

9

10 (2x)

11 (2x)

8 is below current buy orders, and doesn’t appear to be too common. Excluding 8.

Average price of non-outlier sales is 10, so we round to the nearest integer (falls in the 10+ category)

Taking 9-11.