Sale 1:

Sold with ~0.5 keys in stranges for 9 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032886769#!/compare/1589760000/1589846400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143686132#!/compare/1589760000/1589846400

https://backpack.tf/item/7957460423

8.5 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198796031194#!/compare/1589587200/1589760000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032886769#!/compare/1589673600/1589760000

https://backpack.tf/item/7957460423

8 keys

Sale 3:

Sold with RPS (~0.75) for Blizzardy Storm Sky High Fly Guy (8.25)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198837908781#!/compare/1589587200/1589932800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198796031194#!/compare/1589587200/1589760000

https://backpack.tf/item/7957460423

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EP98762 - No B/O

7.5 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30316;5;u57

$16, April 25th

$16, May 8th

$16.50, June 21st

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-25&price=16 - $16 / $1.79 = 8.94 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/429ZVZXQ - No B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-08&price=16 - $16 / $1.89 = 8.47 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQ33P26 - No B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-21&price=16.5 - $16.5 / $1.99 = 8.29 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4O90DOXW - No important B/O

https://backpack.tf/item/7957460423 - April 25th or May 8th

Couldn’t find the other two histories.

After rounding, we have:

[b]Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7637027999 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956424464 - mannco bot

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040936459#!/compare/1586131200/1587513600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106191411#!/compare/1587340800/1588118400

#2

Might have sold with a key for the Kill-a-Watt Detective Noir?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043936328#!/compare/1586390400/1589414400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342570528#!/compare/1588550400/1590019200

History of the Toy Soldier would suggest it simply sold on marketplace, but the history of the Noir went to marketplace as well, and the key that came with the Toy Soldier came from the seller. Only things I can confirm here is that it didn’t sell on marketplace (rather it was pulled from marketplace), and that a key was added on the seller’s end. I can’t confirm that the Noir was involved, however. Even if I could, this sale would look like an outlier anyways, given marketplace sales at 12+ keys on the Noir.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0OWJX5E - B/O of 13 here.

Sellers:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30316;5;u57

https://backpack.tf/item/7956152357 - $23 (~11.5 keys)

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Toy%20Soldier

https://i.imgur.com/6muNMPk.png - $45.68 AUD (keys around $3.65 AUD, = ~12.5 keys)

Sales at:

7.5

8

8.5 (3x)

9

Average price of the sales is below 10 keys, so we round to the nearest 0.5 keys.

Taking 7.5-9