Green Confetti Backwards Ballcap - Xergoyf

Team 2 Suggestion 13

Selling:

https://imgur.com/a/GgdvvOo

Bot at 15 - been there ~9 days

Bot at 16 been there ~2 weeks

Bot.tf Sales

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=617&q=5&ef=Green%20Confetti&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://imgur.com/a/G86bbVb

Buys

2x @ 11

Sells

1x 12

1x 14

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1589846400/1589932800

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KVP3ZR0

Maybe sold for 13 keys 49 ref?

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069613885#!/compare/1590537600/1590624000

Stormy High Guy (7.5, open suggestion) + 5 keys

7.5 + 5 = 12.5

X = 13

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077730629#!/compare/1590537600/1590624000

Sold for a ‘72 Conga

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1118;5;u3004 - sold for ~$40 = ~20 keys a bunch, def a high outlier here

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1590364800/1590451200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049285216#!/compare/1589932800/1591056000

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y79ED35K - B/O was 15

Probably sold for 15, there's a group of 15 in the compare, no histories match.

EDIT: https://imgur.com/a/zclKuDh Fish approved :)

Sales at:

11 (x2)

12

13

14 (x2, 1 untrace)

15

~20 (conga sale)

Summary:

Buyers up to 11.17, calling 11s low. Using the rest. Sellers support the drop.

Final Price: 12 - 15 keys

Only new sale:

https://mannco.store/item/19929

https://mannco.store/item/1

https://backpack.tf/item/8681499344

36/1.8 = 20

Judging by the history, it was gambled after, certainly a high outlier

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873018311#!/compare/1592352000/1592438400 - buyers compare for the 12 bot.tf sale, can't full trace.

https://backpack.tf/item/5309982582

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600 - 15 pure here that I missed

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/429GEG17 - B/O was 15

https://imgur.com/a/Qds0kLz - updated classies, George M is new, https://backpack.tf/item/9010683993 recently obtained in an untrace sale, qs.store bot undercut.

Given that 12 is not full tracable, and the second pure sale at 15, I am thinking 13 - 15 would be better here for a more conservative drop