this sold for $200 5 years ago...

Sale 1:

Sold for 11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993987295#!/compare/1588896000/1590883200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287869626#!/compare/1584921600/1590969600

https://backpack.tf/item/7099862845

11 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 10 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115156971#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198367816851#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

https://backpack.tf/item/8505978420

10 keys

Sale 3:

Sold in an auction for 9 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198367816851#!/compare/1591574400/1591660800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198184109349#!/compare/1591574400/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/item/8505978420

9 keys

Sale 4:

Sold in an auction for 9 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120374593#!/compare/1591747200/1592352000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198242646048#!/compare/1592006400/1592092800

https://backpack.tf/item/7955567902

9 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30313;5;u59

$16.10, April 20th

$20, April 22nd

$21, May 22nd

$24.44, June 10th

$25, June 17th

$25, June 18th (2x)

No snapshots available.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-20&price=16.1 - $16.1 / $1.79 = 8.99 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-22&price=20 - $20 / $1.75 = 11.43 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-22&price=21 - $21 / $1.87 = 11.23 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-10&price=24.44 - $24.44 / $2.01 = 12.16 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-17&price=25 - $25 / $1.98 = 12.63 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-18&price=25 - $25 / $1.98 = 12.63 keys (2x)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956409326 - May 22nd

Couldn’t find the other histories.

After rounding, we have:

11 keys (2x)

13 keys (2x)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/8788171074 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/8515708600 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957614717 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957164082 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956525465 (#6-10)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956159793 (#11 & #12)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956142503 (#13 & #14)

https://backpack.tf/item/8677541381 (#15)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956945970 (#16-18)

https://backpack.tf/item/7955567902 (#19)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957449974 (#20 & #21)

https://backpack.tf/item/7769035602 - scammers

https://backpack.tf/item/7752647985 - site bot

https://backpack.tf/item/7956734234 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/4440078976 - spec. KS

https://backpack.tf/item/3929337978 - scrap and stuff

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078018027#!/compare/1590105600/1590192000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1590278400/1590364800

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1590364800/1590451200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386195044#!/compare/1590364800/1590451200

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1588636800/1588723200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986747837#!/compare/1588550400/1588723200

Gambled afterwards.

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1586131200/1586217600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033661509#!/compare/1586131200/1586217600

Gambled/untraceable afterwards.

#5

Bulk for Pro. KS Aus Rocket Launcher

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124972076#!/compare/1586044800/1586217600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079629756#!/compare/1586131200/1586476800

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106940627#!/compare/1588809600/1590796800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000

#7

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198864311780#!/compare/1585526400/1586131200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053583913#!/compare/1584057600/1585958400

Too many sales occurred on the SCM during the time, and the compare doesn’t give an accurate date of when the item became tradeable.

#8

Sold for Terror-Watt Neckwear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053583913#!/compare/1586390400/1586822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1586304000/1586390400

Most likely had more involved than just that. If not, this’ll be a large outlier anyways.

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1586908800/1586995200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355677328#!/compare/1582070400/1586995200

9 keys match

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037674114 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

Gambled prior

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198878948902#!/compare/1585612800/1585699200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1585526400/1585612800

#12

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1586044800/1586131200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322560312#!/compare/1586044800/1586131200

Gambled/untraceable afterwards

#13

Sold with Strange Dead of Night for Codex Head Full of Hot Air + Deep Fried Desire unusualifier

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213006185#!/compare/1586908800/1588032000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292137994#!/compare/1587168000/1587254400

Way too low

#14

Sold for Sparkling Lights Spiky Viking

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292137994#!/compare/1588896000/1588982400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258293922#!/compare/1588550400/1589155200

In-date at 14.5, but many sellers for much cheaper. Would be better to update the Viking with this sale instead.

#15

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339594065 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1587945600/1588032000

#16

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418740133#!/compare/1587340800/1587427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198862816094#!/compare/1586908800/1587427200

8 keys match on the buyer’s end.

Gambled/untraceable afterwards.

#17 & #18

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1590364800/1590451200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100484031#!/compare/1591315200/1591488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

History shows it went to and from the bot. The guy in-between doesn’t appear to have bought it off the bot, rather it came from an unscanned backpack.

#19

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198860665121#!/compare/1592352000/1592611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031690733#!/compare/1592352000/1592438400

Gambled afterwards.

#20

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199005154104#!/compare/1592092800/1592352000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1592006400/1592092800

#21

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102007414#!/compare/1592438400/1592611200

8 keys match on the buyer’s end.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/PDAzueS.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7956525465 - ~11 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7956945970 - 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2484397150 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7955796703 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5146546999 - 21 keys

Sales at:

9 (3x)

10

11 (3x)

12

13 (2x)

Sales at 9 are too common, keeping 9.

Don’t want to stray too far from the sellers at 11. Keeping 12, excluding 13.

Taking 9-12.