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Unpriced.
Taking last 2 months.
Marketplace
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30816;5;u3021
Sold for 24.74 on May 1 (24.74/1.85 = 13.37 rounding to 13 keys)
Sold for 16.06 on May 15 (16.06/1.91 = 8.41 rounding to 8.5 keys)
Sold for 24.7 on June 19 (24.7/1.98 = 12.47 rounding to 12 keys)
Sold for 24.7 on June 29 (24.7/2.01 = 12.29 rounding to 12 keys)
https://backpack.tf/item/5984456581
https://backpack.tf/item/5343194905
Sold with 9 refined for 10 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1591747200/1591920000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000426108#!/compare/1591833600/1592265600
Rounds to 10 keys
Buyout was 9 keys + 45 refined but ends up rounding back to 10 keys anyways.
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4R05JEDE
Current Classifieds:
https://gyazo.com/2e898d10a3967ebcf1eb15a896d6c56b
Seller at 10 keys for 3 months, excluding 13.
1 @ 8.5 keys
1 @ 10 keys
2 @ 12 keys
1 @ 13 keysWhile I would exclude 12 as well, it seems common here, and they are the most recent sales as well.
Taking 8.5-12 keys here.
8.5 keys is your $16.06 sale, which is currently under a marketplace buy order
https://gyazo.com/200500163aaa9384be7456a4eb764d78
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30816;5;u3021
although its only one, it also being only 1 key above classifed buyers makes me believe that 8.5 is an outlier
https://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Taunt:%20Second%20Rate%20Sorcery&quality=5&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=-1&particle=3021&killstreak_tier=0
https://gyazo.com/136f33dbd9a540c4b183cc0967559573
maybe 10-12 keys would be a better range, it cuts off a low and high sale and includes the 2 important MP sales
I disagree with your second point, the classifieds buyers are less than the sale itself.
However, the first buyer is indeed above the sale, so I thank you for pointing it out! Will resuggest.