57 / 200 = 0.285 Refined. Rounding to 0.22, or $0.01 cents.
Hello, your reasoning is sound but there are several sellers on classifieds for 0.11 refined, all pure sales always take precedence over Marketplace sales
Unfortunately, sellers =/= sales. These are consistent sales that have been happening for months, the fact there are a few sellers for less doesn't change that.
There are also plenty of pure sales that also fall in this suggestion:
And like I said, pure sales always take priority over Marketplace sales.
1 cent is a toss-up for either 0.05, 0.11, or 0.22 because of varying key prices and conversion rates - this is why pure sales (and lower sellers) are more important than Marketplace.
Marketplace is a valid medium for proof, but when the lowest selling value you can put on an item that's not free can mean 0.11 or 0.22, those kinds of sales should be reconsidered if it is your main source of proof.
The backpack.tf price is meant to represent the item's value in pure - This is why buyouts on unusuals exist. With your suggestion, you are saying that the pure value of this item should be 0.22, but your conclusive evidence is Marketplace, a medium that like I mentioned above, changes every day with key conversion rates and key selling prices.
At the very least, this item should not be 0.22 flat, but a range could be considered. But considering this weapon as more than 1 scrap without including 1 scrap in the range is questionable as well.
As supporting evidence, random craft weapons and random crates also sell frequently on Marketplace for 1 cent. But this doesn't mean that every craft weapon and crate is worth 0.22 because you can always find more on backpack.tf classifieds or other trading sites for less and for pure.
Also, not to be nitpicky, but 0.285 rounds to 0.33. That means if your suggestion was fixed for rounding and the suggested price becomes 0.33, that would also mean that all of the sales on bot.tf counter your suggestion now.
The largest volume of sales on bot.tf is at the 0.22 price point.
Past 60 minutes
No sales found.
Past 24 hours
3 @ 0.22 ref
Past 7 days
24 @ 0.22 ref
Past 30 days
60 @ 0.22 ref
8 @ 0.16 ref
6 @ 0.11 ref
5 @ 1.00 ref
56 bought
Past 60 minutes
No acquisitions found.
Past 24 hours
1 @ 0.05 ref
1 @ 0.11 ref
Past 7 days
9 @ 0.11 ref
5 @ 0.05 ref
Past 30 days
32 @ 0.11 ref
24 @ 0.05 ref
There are 87 sales for 0.22 there, it's clearly the most represented value in their prices. Also, the volume of sales for the Sticky Jumper on marketplace is significantly higher than that of any other craftable weapon. Saying that other weapons also sell for $0.01 on Marketplace is not a valid argument for saying that the marketplace sales are outliers.
I am not saying that all Scrap Weapons are worth 0.22 Refined due to sales on Marketplace. But that doesn't change the fact that the Sticky & Rocket Jumpers are not a standard scrap weapon. Also, the Key Price fluctuating is not a factor, since Key prices are only rising(lower Key Value = higher Percentage of Key). That means that 0.22 is actually a conservative value for the Marketplace sales prior to the rise in demand of Keys.
Keys rising is keys fluctuating. It is a factor.
There are surely a large amount of sales for 0.22 on bot.tf, but that doesn't mean you can exclude the rest of the 75 sales that occurred at 0.05, 0.11, and 1.00 (those 1.00 are a clear outlier, though).
So there are 32 + 24 + 8 + 6 sales at 0.05-0.16.
Also, the way bot.tf sales are marked, the 30 day time lapse is sales for all bot.tf sales, the 24 @ 0.22 is included in that 60 - So it's not 60 + 24 + 3 that occurred in the last 30 days, it's really just 60. (I'm not sure if I'm wording that correctly, actually, I don't know how else to explain it)
So let's see. 60 sales at 0.22, 70 sales at 0.05-0.16. Over half the sales on bot.tf counter your suggestion being a flat price.
And again, all these sales carry more weight than Marketplace sales. It's simply not accurate to base this price off Marketplace sales alone.
I'm not saying that 0.22 is not a feasible price point for the Sticky Jumper, but the proof definitely proves that while 0.22 happen, sales under it do happen as well.
I completely agree. If an item like this was based completely based on marketplace sales, that would be ludicrous.
But it's not.
You are saying that over half of sales counter, when in reality there are about an even number of sales on Bot.tf, while there are hundreds of consistent sales in past 3 months that counter the sales you are listing on Bot.tf.
Also it's not that Key fluctuation shouldn't be taken into consideration in suggestions. But the fluctuation in this case would only stand to further increase the value, since keys were valued lower previously. You are trying to state that the suggested value is too high, which is why it doesn't matter here. Also, there is no such thing as sales "holding more weight than Marketplace sales". Sales are sales, regardless of where they happen. Also, I didn't know that on Bot.tf the amount of sales in 30 days also includes the 7 day sales. But, that would still be only 70 sales @ 0.05-0.16, vs 60 @ 0.22. If that were everything, then you would be correct. However, when you take the 60 sales from Bot.tf stats, and then add them to the supporting evidence of the Marketplace sales, it's not even a comparison. Cherry picking sales is clearly stated to be against the rules.
look at this guy trying to argue with the top contributor in suggestions
everything offline said is correct. think about it this way: if you price this at 0.22 ref but it's possible to buy the item at 0.11, is 0.22 truly an accurate price? no, because it's too high
you need to consider both sales as well as buyers/sellers before you set your range. in suggesting, the idea is to represent the most common trading points so 0.11 really shouldn't be disregarded
Yep, way too many sales for lower for this to be .22 flat. Marketplace sales below 50 cents or so should be used as general supporting evidence. The problem with sales at 1 cent is that 1 cent can be anywhere from 0.01 - 0.22 and there is no way to differentiate between that. Item sales should be what is used here and as mentioned here, there's quite a few under .22
Taking Marketplace sales.
Numerous sell everyday for $0.01 on Marketplace:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/265;6
Median price per key at the time of suggestion:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
$2.00
$2.00 / $0.01 = 200
57 = Price of Key in Refined: https://gyazo.com/54a031264b7e37e6848087086b5a8d2f
57 / 200 = 0.285 Refined. Rounding to 0.22, or $0.01 cents.
Hello, your reasoning is sound but there are several sellers on classifieds for 0.11 refined, all pure sales always take precedence over Marketplace sales
https://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Sticky%20Jumper&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=-1&killstreak_tier=0
Unfortunately, sellers =/= sales. These are consistent sales that have been happening for months, the fact there are a few sellers for less doesn't change that.
There are also plenty of pure sales that also fall in this suggestion:
https://gyazo.com/2297c91efb1afed6c65b5c48d1b9b44a
27 additional sales for 0.22 Refined in past 7 days.
Then let's have a look at bot.tf
https://gyazo.com/bf70e7bc28edd66a942f8529352eff7a
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=265&q=6&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script
There are sales for 0.22 like you say, but there are also sales for 0.11 and even consistent sales at 0.05
https://scrap.tf/search#2|265,440,0
https://gyazo.com/57adde525aec8d0978b1385be095325a
8 on scrap.tf for 0.05
And like I said, pure sales always take priority over Marketplace sales.
1 cent is a toss-up for either 0.05, 0.11, or 0.22 because of varying key prices and conversion rates - this is why pure sales (and lower sellers) are more important than Marketplace.
Marketplace is a valid medium for proof, but when the lowest selling value you can put on an item that's not free can mean 0.11 or 0.22, those kinds of sales should be reconsidered if it is your main source of proof.
The backpack.tf price is meant to represent the item's value in pure - This is why buyouts on unusuals exist. With your suggestion, you are saying that the pure value of this item should be 0.22, but your conclusive evidence is Marketplace, a medium that like I mentioned above, changes every day with key conversion rates and key selling prices.
At the very least, this item should not be 0.22 flat, but a range could be considered. But considering this weapon as more than 1 scrap without including 1 scrap in the range is questionable as well.
As supporting evidence, random craft weapons and random crates also sell frequently on Marketplace for 1 cent. But this doesn't mean that every craft weapon and crate is worth 0.22 because you can always find more on backpack.tf classifieds or other trading sites for less and for pure.
Also, not to be nitpicky, but 0.285 rounds to 0.33. That means if your suggestion was fixed for rounding and the suggested price becomes 0.33, that would also mean that all of the sales on bot.tf counter your suggestion now.
The largest volume of sales on bot.tf is at the 0.22 price point.
Past 60 minutes
No sales found.
Past 24 hours
3 @ 0.22 ref
Past 7 days
24 @ 0.22 ref
Past 30 days
60 @ 0.22 ref
8 @ 0.16 ref
6 @ 0.11 ref
5 @ 1.00 ref
56 bought
Past 60 minutes
No acquisitions found.
Past 24 hours
1 @ 0.05 ref
1 @ 0.11 ref
Past 7 days
9 @ 0.11 ref
5 @ 0.05 ref
Past 30 days
32 @ 0.11 ref
24 @ 0.05 ref
There are 87 sales for 0.22 there, it's clearly the most represented value in their prices. Also, the volume of sales for the Sticky Jumper on marketplace is significantly higher than that of any other craftable weapon. Saying that other weapons also sell for $0.01 on Marketplace is not a valid argument for saying that the marketplace sales are outliers.
I am not saying that all Scrap Weapons are worth 0.22 Refined due to sales on Marketplace. But that doesn't change the fact that the Sticky & Rocket Jumpers are not a standard scrap weapon. Also, the Key Price fluctuating is not a factor, since Key prices are only rising(lower Key Value = higher Percentage of Key). That means that 0.22 is actually a conservative value for the Marketplace sales prior to the rise in demand of Keys.
Keys rising is keys fluctuating. It is a factor.
There are surely a large amount of sales for 0.22 on bot.tf, but that doesn't mean you can exclude the rest of the 75 sales that occurred at 0.05, 0.11, and 1.00 (those 1.00 are a clear outlier, though).
So there are 32 + 24 + 8 + 6 sales at 0.05-0.16.
Also, the way bot.tf sales are marked, the 30 day time lapse is sales for all bot.tf sales, the 24 @ 0.22 is included in that 60 - So it's not 60 + 24 + 3 that occurred in the last 30 days, it's really just 60. (I'm not sure if I'm wording that correctly, actually, I don't know how else to explain it)
So let's see. 60 sales at 0.22, 70 sales at 0.05-0.16. Over half the sales on bot.tf counter your suggestion being a flat price.
And again, all these sales carry more weight than Marketplace sales. It's simply not accurate to base this price off Marketplace sales alone.
I'm not saying that 0.22 is not a feasible price point for the Sticky Jumper, but the proof definitely proves that while 0.22 happen, sales under it do happen as well.
I completely agree. If an item like this was based completely based on marketplace sales, that would be ludicrous.
But it's not.
You are saying that over half of sales counter, when in reality there are about an even number of sales on Bot.tf, while there are hundreds of consistent sales in past 3 months that counter the sales you are listing on Bot.tf.
Also it's not that Key fluctuation shouldn't be taken into consideration in suggestions. But the fluctuation in this case would only stand to further increase the value, since keys were valued lower previously. You are trying to state that the suggested value is too high, which is why it doesn't matter here. Also, there is no such thing as sales "holding more weight than Marketplace sales". Sales are sales, regardless of where they happen. Also, I didn't know that on Bot.tf the amount of sales in 30 days also includes the 7 day sales. But, that would still be only 70 sales @ 0.05-0.16, vs 60 @ 0.22. If that were everything, then you would be correct. However, when you take the 60 sales from Bot.tf stats, and then add them to the supporting evidence of the Marketplace sales, it's not even a comparison. Cherry picking sales is clearly stated to be against the rules.
look at this guy trying to argue with the top contributor in suggestions
everything offline said is correct. think about it this way: if you price this at 0.22 ref but it's possible to buy the item at 0.11, is 0.22 truly an accurate price? no, because it's too high
you need to consider both sales as well as buyers/sellers before you set your range. in suggesting, the idea is to represent the most common trading points so 0.11 really shouldn't be disregarded
Yep, way too many sales for lower for this to be .22 flat. Marketplace sales below 50 cents or so should be used as general supporting evidence. The problem with sales at 1 cent is that 1 cent can be anywhere from 0.01 - 0.22 and there is no way to differentiate between that. Item sales should be what is used here and as mentioned here, there's quite a few under .22
resuggestion