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Mini for Frozen Icefall Peak
Item 1
https://backpack.tf/item/563127462
Sale 1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061440669#!/compare/1590537600/1590624000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198390580688#!/compare/1590537600/1590624000
Sold for KAW Caribou, HG Snowcapped, Strange Machina (13.7), 2 Max's Head (2 x 17.27), Strange Frying Pan (19), The Big Kill (6.1), Vintage Lugermorph (5.55), BMOC (6.3) and 10 keys
Mini for Caribou - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5effd160cbb20772ab4970c7 - 15.5 keys
Mini for HG Snowcapped - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5effd2cbb9aa174d791aac1d - 14 keys
15.5 + 14 + 13.7 + (2 x 17.27) + 19 + 6.1 + 5.55 + 6.3 + 10 = 124.69 keys
Sale 2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198390580688#!/compare/1591228800/1591315200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197988588806#!/compare/1591315200/1591401600
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLV2OVXO - Buyout of 200 keys
The 15 keys match
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1591228800/1591315200 - 135 of those keys were used for The Eldritch Opening Hellmet
Assuming it sold for 135 + 15 = 150 keys here
151 keys left the buyers inventory so it almost matches up
Item 2
https://backpack.tf/item/552898444
Sale 3
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/183;5;u38
May 24th - $248.89 / $1.88 = 132.39 keys
Sale 4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070306770#!/compare/1591142400/1591747200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055497903#!/compare/1591401600/1591747200
Sold alongside BF Peak for Frozen Icefall Peak, using there
Sales
125, 150, 132
Current Listings
https://prnt.sc/tbh6wg
Seller at 200 for a week
Buyers at 97
Going with 125 - 150 keys
A couple sales you missed:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1590364800/1590451200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198417255988#!/compare/1590105600/1590451200
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD150L0L - B/O was 129
Beams Drill ~70 (open sug) + Duped CMoon Hoodie
Nothing really usable on the Hoodie, sold on mp for ~70 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/377;5;u38 and then dumped on stn for 53
https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Cloudy+Moon+Hottie%27s+Hoodie
https://backpack.tf/item/546097024
If a real mini occured, I think this is likely gonna cap at b/o + support range
https://imgur.com/a/Aj65M6O - Buyer then sold to a bot for ~95 2.5 weeks later, bot then sold for 125
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985910282#!/compare/1593043200/1593129600 - only 121 are seen here but was almost 100% to be 125
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y8E3DPJW - Beaser and Crazy Viking were both selling for awhile, but 150 was pure so this is probably fine.