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resuggest: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ed18237cedcc25a0a643bd4
Sale 1:
212.5 keys rounds to 215
Strange Fifth Dimension Dancing Doe(172.5) + 40 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331508691#!/compare/1589328000/1589414400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122107265#!/compare/1589068800/1589328000
dancing doe: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ed1813e2b821c32d84d677d
Sale 2:
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142082556#!/compare/1577145600/1585094400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986098845#!/compare/1585008000/1585094400
Sale 3:
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986098845#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055224435#!/compare/1585008000/1585094400
Sale 4:
caps at 235 b/o: https://imgur.com/a/JSmnnUt
GE warpig(165) + frostbite baker boy(141)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055224435#!/compare/1593129600/1593907200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077934343#!/compare/1593907200/1593993600
baker boy: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ef8b5c243363068ae2cdd41
==================================================================
Sales:
215, 235
https://imgur.com/a/04HnBwb - Crispy had a buyout of 200 Keys for Sale 4.
I believe that is wrong, Crispy and I both had ours priced at 245 for some time. His was previously lower (probably the 200 you have there), but he raised his buyout to meet mine, and stayed there until it sold.
looks like it may have dropped to 235 at some point: https://imgur.com/a/ERQ6zxY
https://imgur.com/a/fnQaVqd
This is correct from my memory too, Crispy and I both had our prices at 245, then his listing went inactive. Don’t know where the 235 comes from with the buyer, but Crispy is certain the hat was not listed when he sold it.
All of the speculation surrounding what the buyout for sale 4 was makes that sale a bit odd to handle. There was a guaranteed buyout at 200 Keys, but the last time that was recorded was 3 months prior to the sale occurring, which is a bit old to still use. The problem is there's no way to tell how much longer the buyout was 200 Keys after that. The buyer thinks the buyout was 235, the seller says the Slo-Poke wasn't listed, and the AR3M says the buyout was 245 Keys to match his listing.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the buyout, and since 306 Keys - the sale's value - is decently higher than whatever buyout it could've been, I'd use that as supportive proof for a raise. 215 flat will work here.