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https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1116;5;u3021
$12.49 / $1.89 = 6.61 keys
$11.69 / $2.00 = 5.84 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/7318050478
https://backpack.tf/item/2944181708
https://backpack.tf/item/3568728457
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199036693764#!/compare/1588896000/1589241600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600
4 keys + refined to buy order
https://gyazo.com/4c52b1831cf32eafc56a38d8073c5309
//
https://backpack.tf/item/2944181708
stn.tf tradebacks
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198885102216#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000
Untraceable
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198885102216#!/compare/1589846400/1592438400
Bulk
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150077063#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198281630040#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000
Bulk
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150077063#!/compare/1591315200/1591401600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1591315200/1591401600
4 keys + refined to buy order
https://gyazo.com/4c52b1831cf32eafc56a38d8073c5309
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260651783#!/compare/1591833600/1592006400
Untraceable
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260651783#!/compare/1592092800/1592179200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1592092800/1592179200
Untraceable
//
Sales
4 + ref
4 + ref
5.84
6.6
buyers convincingly above 4 though https://gyazo.com/621d5f32acf683902ee22d0f2cef6bbd
going with 6-6.5
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1116;5;u3021 - new sale at $11.99 (6 keys)
might be best to exclude 6.5 here given there are another 2 sellers at $11.99
Yeah I would exclude 6.5, theres even evidence to suggest lower trading points as well (not traceable but still)
https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Spooky+Night+Taunt%3A+I+See+You - stns were likely sold for ~5.5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260651783#!/compare/1591833600/1592006400
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WX38J9N
Likely sold for ~5 (one of your untracable sales)
Sorry I just forgot about this suggestion
A new sale on Marketplace:
$11.99 / $1.98 = 6.06 keys
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1116;5;u3021
https://backpack.tf/item/3568728457
With the proof provided by Xergoyf below, should this suggestion be 5-6 or 6 flat?
To add to Xergoyf's proof, some bot.tf buyouts
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNR86X2Q 6/6/20 - ~4.9 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLV2W3L5 6/8/20 - 5 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0OJX7O2 6/10/20 - 5 keys
Took the bot about a week to sell for presumably 5 keys (sale isn't traceable through compares)
And then the user that bought it for 5 sold it back to a bot regardless
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260651783#!/compare/1592092800/1592179200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1592092800/1592179200
I think that the same day it was bought it was sold to a bot actually
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLVXOK6O https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EPG20VE https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD10KJNX
Three buyouts on 6/13/20
Current classifieds: https://gyazo.com/0204092ac807cf9058b201c732d79256
One buyer at 4.83 keys, rest are closer to 4.5
If any of the 5 sales is traceable then 5-6 will work imo
With this one provided by Xergoyf
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260651783#!/compare/1591833600/1592006400
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WX38J9N
Likely sold for ~5 (one of your untracable sales)
Bot.tf says it was 5 keys and 1.11 refined
I can only find the 1.11 refined that matches, 2nd item stack from the top
Then it looks like the Flammable Flippin was bought for unknown amount
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827187707#!/compare/1592006400/1592611200
But no other 5 keys matches in the seller compare
However, one key leaving the buyer compare does match
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260651783#!/compare/1591833600/1592006400
https://backpack.tf/item/3852727396
And in the Flammable Flippin trade, that key goes to a bot that matches with the Strange Classic
So that key went:
spent for spooky i see you
spent for flippin awesome
spent for strange classic
So at least that shows that the key went towards the taunt and explains why it doesn't show in the spooky i see you compare
//
that being said, the sale above is still mostly untraceable as far as compares go, we can just go with the assumption that the trade was 99% 5 keys + 1.11 refined
And other than that, no other 5 key sales are traceable either
Is that assumption enough to say the sale was 5?
Worth noting that a new 5 key buyer is here, now 8 days old (8/12/2020)
https://gyazo.com/1ea94b42da8b2c1a9cc47c88aec4493a
Additionally, no other sales since the July 12 Marketplace sale have occurred
sellers on Marketplace still $11.99 https://gyazo.com/697d27603de64e426572bebcf7892d82
(about 6.5 keys)
Especially since the amount of ref matches, I think it is likely enough to say it sold for 5/1.11 here; it would be far less likely that it sold for, say, 4/1.11