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Team #4 Suggestion #23
Credits to: Astimageon
Sales at 22, 22, and 30 - https://imgur.com/y3p0U2z
Trade 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046613909#!/compare/1585699200/1585785600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1585699200/1585785600
Untrace
Trade 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1590364800/1590451200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027864470#!/compare/1590278400/1590364800
Untrace
Trade 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304302520#!/compare/1592956800/1593043200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1593043200/1593129600
Untrace
Trade 4:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072346385#!/compare/1592956800/1593216000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000
18 keys match, excluding
Trade 6:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072346385#!/compare/1593216000/1593302400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202436474#!/compare/1592870400/1593475200
Untrace
Trade 7:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202436474#!/compare/1593302400/1593475200
Seems like c9 hwnn (28) as a 1:1? histories match
Trade 8:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1593734400/1593907200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832832186#!/compare/1593734400/1593907200
21 keys and 40 ref.
Sales at 22, 22, 22, 28, 30
Doing 22 flat since it is a common trading ground, excluding 28 and 30 since there are sellers below that!
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304302520#!/compare/1593036000/1593122400 - compare for 30 bot.tf sale, buyer seems to of dumped to Killua quickly tho
Johan selling:
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EPXW7ZQ - start of june @ 30
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNR0XJ85 - end of june @ 28.5
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQD11PV - end of july @ 25.5
New mp sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/101;5;u15
$67.9 / $2.00 = 33.95 keys https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WXEE82X B/O was 34
$74.99 / $1.92 = 39.06 keys
30 sold for 22 in 2 days, and the mp sales happened with a seller ~26 -28 so I would call those all high. I agree with Foamy, I would include the 28 sale to give this a range, since the higher sales clearly support a price higher than 22 flat.
I do not believe it is a good idea to make this 22 flat when half your sales at that value are buy orders, considering 2 higher sales happened as well. This should definitely get a range.
As an aside, if you are going to use sellers like this to justify removing sales from a range, you should really show how long they have been selling. Going to give the benefit of the doubt on this one, but the suggestion as it is implies you are using a 12 hour old seller as a hard cutoff, which is most definitely a no-go.
Given the circumstances I would still vouch for a range over this flat value.