Price Suggestion
~480 keys
clairv.
Unusual Herald's Helm Clairvoyance
50 votes up
5 votes down
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This suggestion was closed by Vijf Kilo Boter (met voetjes).

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Comments

buyout dropping this one too


https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30769;5;u121

https://backpack.tf/item/7255217250

https://imgur.com/a/hOtt8tA

been at $380 for two months now, taking 190

    it was listed at that for less than 3 weeks; i'm changing the price every week so it was not always listed at this price during the past 2 months.. the price is always changing up and down; ex : https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:f24D3gJ311AJ:https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30769%3B5%3Bu121+&cd=3&hl=fr&ct=clnk&gl=fr

      it was at that price for three weeks, which was your buyout in cash. it was there even longer for $389.99. changing the price now shouldn't do anything, it's like making a buy order to counter a suggestion.

        nope , the price as changed many times in the past 2 months and was listed at more than your suggested price actually less than 2 weeks before you make the suggestion

          Well at what values was it listed then?

            it was listed at 389$ less than 2 weeks before this suggest as it show here

            https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:f24D3gJ311AJ:https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30769%3B5%3Bu121+&cd=3&hl=fr&ct=clnk&gl=fr

            and a week before it was listed at more than $400

            I was changing the price up and down every week so the $379.99 wont be valid here

              Yeah I saw that, but if that is the only other value it was listed at then that is no cause for hindering based on fluctuation (differences in key values probably result in more uncertainty here than the difference between those two listings). Do you have caches from the 400+ listings?

                no sadly , the google cash propose me only this date.. i swear it was listed at exactly $479.99 before , if anyone is able to find that, that would really help

                  I mean, Im having trouble working with all of that. You state you moved it up and down every week, yet the only values I see are 380 and 390. There is no record of it ever being at 480, and with all I see here it could very well be that you started at 480 and then dropped to 390-380 over the course of the month and a half that followed, and that is assuming 480 was the actual listed value at some point in time. That in turn seems unlikely seeing how it remained more or less stable for almost a month between 380 and 390, implying either a more steep change in listed price or no higher listing (or not as high as implied).


                  Most of this honestly sounds like you are making your listings with the sole purpose of dodging potential buyout drops (especially keeping in mind how most of your replies are vague and inconsistent (e.g. you only said you changed it but don't reveal what for except for the only proof you provide which sits at pretty much the same value; you name a date and say less than 3 weeks ago and in the next comment you list the same thing and say less than 2 weeks ago). That all does not really speak in your favor here. As an aside, even the 480 you mention you had before all that would (at values at that time) have been less than current, so even considering the possibility all of this is right, it was still unsold below current for well over 2 months.


                  Furthermore, the last two recorded sales are both far lower; even the person that paid 260 ended up selling it a few months later for much less than that. The last sale I saw was with some ~130 in adds for a hat with a 300 key buyout, which would be quite close to the suggested value actually. The other sale (which was the sale from the person that paid 260) is with similar adds for a hat which had another sale at ~170-180, which would be even lower.


                  This makes me wonder if the best idea here might be to simply wipe the existing price as it is extremely clear that that sale was in reality an outlier, which would also solve the inconsistent listing price problem (as it is worth considering that even the lowest of those values is still too high, judging by other recent sales).

      Okay so we have had some discussion about this with the price moderators, and after polling everyone's opinion, we have decided to revert the original suggestion and leave this unpriced.


      The way this is going to be done here is a highly exceptional case, as we generally do not revert prices that are no longer in-date (since we usually just leave the hat outdated). The reason this exception is issued here is as follows:


      1) The sale from the original suggestion has since become questionable in nature, and it is very clear the sale should be considered an outlier based on all the new data points we have gotten. The person that paid that much resold it for about half of that within 3 months of obtaining it (so while it accepted price was not yet outdated), meaning that at that time, the hat would've had two discrepant sales where the buyer resold for less. With that in mind, leaving it unpriced would have been the best option at that time.

      2) Based on recent, in-date data (in this case sellers), it is very clear that at this moment, the price is no longer accurate.

      3) Multiple actual sales since the original suggestion have occurred that are all far lower than the current price. These sales were in-date when the buyout drop issued here became valid Using them now would require the other hats involved to receive formal updates, and pushing this even further would yield an update with sales that are too far outdated. These sales are significantly below the value held right now (ranging from less than 50% to about 60% of the current value).

      4) The buyout drop that would normally be issued here is made impossible by the selling style of the user that is selling it. Listings have been consistently below current for a long time, until the suggestion popped up, prompting the seller to significantly raise his selling price.


      This left us with two options here:

      - Accept this as better than current

      - Revert the original suggestion


      Especially seeing that with his purchase in mind, this would actually have been a raise based on a seller, we have decided to revert the original suggestion here. Stressing again here that this is an extremely irregular decision based on all four of the issues indicated above, which has stretched this beyond our normal threshold for reverting suggestions.