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Team 👏 2 👏
Wrein
Lemonade
knightfury69
UNBXRN
Sarkness
Eithan
l3D is a tanuki
IdiNium
Blizzardy Storm Charmer's Chapeau
mplc.tf sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/397;5;u30
Sale #1: $40.00 / $2.04 (https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-27) = 19.61 ~ 20 keys
item history not found
Sale #2: $69.99 / $1.99 (https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-09) = 35.17 ~ 35 keys
item history not found
Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/631993855
untraced
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136156244#!/compare/1583971200/1594339200 (missing)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1594252800/1594339200
Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/1011472279
untraced
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037674114#!/compare/1586995200/1589932800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1588032000/1588118400
untraced
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1588377600/1588464000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1588377600/1588464000
29 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1589932800/1590019200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272365931#!/compare/1589932800/1590019200
Sales: 20, 29, 35
unsold is dupe
https://imgur.com/a/8p6H1rq - Current market, zol is still selling for ~26 for 18 days
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EP2VJ2Q - looks like zol actually bought for 26.5
This is under 30 keys, so technically dupes don't matter here, but I have a feeling that the reason it hasn't sold is because it is a dupe. Either way, I think 35 is a high outlier. I would probably be fine with 26-29 or 29 flat
Edit: Didn't see Vince's histories below. Person who bought from him seems like they gambled it days after buying:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108020681#!/compare/1594339200/1594252800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199068665221#!/compare/1594252800/1594339200
In addition there is a bunch of quick movements on May 13th, which is either gambling/qs's - an item doesn't sell this fast for full price.
https://backpack.tf/item/6861031099
Because of this, I would prefer 26 - 29 now. Zol's untrace purchase at ~26.5 support the low end with a likely sale.
the $40 was my mp buyorder, and the 69.99 had a b/o of 35 keys as I was the seller
And this was the history for the $69.99 - https://backpack.tf/item/6861031099
And this was the history for the $40 - https://backpack.tf/item/1772355708