Mini

Snowfallen Smissmas Saxton

└ Sunbeams Sergeant's Drill Hat

...└ Haunted Ghosts Scotch Bonnet

......└ Blizzardy Storm Détective Noir

......│...└ Bubbling Bullet Buzz

......└ Vivid Plasma Fat Man's Field Cap

Recent sale from mplc.tf: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/319;5;u30

Sale #1: $30.00 / $1.99 (https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-09) = 15.08 ~ 15 keys

Item history: https://backpack.tf/item/7920469445 (dated June 5th)

Sale #2: $35.99 / $2.00 (https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-12) = 18 keys

Item history: https://backpack.tf/item/792501301 (dated June 13th)

Item tracing:-

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/630060163 (spelled)

Sale #4

spell upgrade - ignored

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960695626#!/compare/1570060800/1589673600 (untraced)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252904089#!/compare/1589414400/1591056000

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/747815836 (duped)

Sale #5

painted upgrade - ignored

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277464612#!/compare/1588809600/1589673600 (ID: 8765514807)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043171944#!/compare/1587686400/1588809600 (ID: 8765514847)

Sale #6

Trade that is used to make this mini - Haunted Ghosts Scotch Bonnet - skip

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043171944#!/compare/1587686400/1588809600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004015206#!/compare/1588377600/1588809600

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/4233197158

Sale #7

related to Sale #5 for painted upgrade

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277464612#!/compare/1588809600/1589673600

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/792501301

Sale #8

untraced

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057897812#!/compare/1587945600/1588032000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1587859200/1588032000

skipping deposit/withdrawal to/from mplc.tf

Sale #9

untraced

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359746121#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211276789#!/compare/1592784000/1592956800

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/7920469445

Sale #10

Sold for 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272353085#!/compare/1587600000/1587686400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031334349#!/compare/1587600000/1587686400

Sale #11

Sold for 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031334349#!/compare/1588291200/1588464000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120747050#!/compare/1588204800/1588377600

skipping deposit/withdrawal to/from mplc.tf

Sale #12

bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198184164851#!/compare/1591660800/1591833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198988319584#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

Sale #13

Blizzardy Storm Détective Noir + Bubbling Bullet Buzz (8 keys) = 18 keys

Blizzardy Storm Détective Noir = 18 - 8 = 10 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198988319584#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400 (ID: 8895412381)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400 (ID: 8895412335)

Bubbling Bullet Buzz: 8 keys (Mini: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f1005ed267ab80eeb653b9b)

Current sell/buy order: https://gyazo.com/33cc83bcd84d96a28ed2ad9aee75e7a3

Selling for 16.52 keys (a month) (Quicksell.store bot)

Buying for 12.66, 12.64, 12.63 keys

Only buying on stn.tf for 12 keys, 38 ref ~ 13 keys (https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Blizzardy+Storm+D%C3%A9tective+Noir)

2 B/O on mplc.tf:

$ 29.99 / $2.03 = 14.77 ~ 15 keys

$ 44.99 / $2.03 = 22.16 ~ 22 keys

Valid sales: 15, 18, 16, 15, 10 --> 10 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 18 keys

Excluding 10 since below buy order

Excluding 18 since higher than sell order price

Taking 15 - 16 keys (avg 15.5 keys)

IdiNium's Unusual Suggestion #4