Miami Nights Big Elfin Deal

Mptf sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/652;5;u61

May 4: 19.49/1.88 = 10.37 keys rounding to 10 keys.

No history or b/o found.

May 16: 19.49/1.81 = 10.31 keys rounding to 10 keys.

No history or b/o found.

Jun 30: 19.49/2.01 = 9.7 keys rounding to 9.5 keys.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4O9GRDWQ - B/o of 10 keys

No history found.

Bot.tf sales

https://imgur.com/a/CH2HUwt

1x sold at 9 keys

1x bought at 8 keys 7 ref (~8 keys)

Couldn't trace the bot.tf sales, using as supporting

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1587600000/1587686400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340645859#!/compare/1587600000/1587686400

Sold for 11 keys.

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340645859#!/compare/1587686400/1587772800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198879945899#!/compare/1587600000/1587686400

Untrace

https://backpack.tf/item/7957125496 - Was bought for 11 before being flipped to a bot for lower within the same day

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD1VXJ7X - Had a buy order of ~7.5 keys

Excluding sales 1 and 2.

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198438695904#!/compare/1593388800/1593820800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021185193#!/compare/1593388800/1593561600

Untrace, only 2 keys 17 ref match

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021185193#!/compare/1593820800/1593907200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106112825#!/compare/1593734400/1593820800

Untrace

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106112825#!/compare/1593734400/1593820800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400372589#!/compare/1593734400/1593820800

Sold with 15 ref for 9 keys

9 - 0.26 = 8.74 keys rounding to 8.5 keys

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400372589#!/compare/1593820800/1594080000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355358626#!/compare/1593648000/1594166400

Untrace

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211863275#!/compare/1593043200/1593129600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396034569#!/compare/1593043200/1593129600

Untrace, the GFetti Whoopee Cap was probably quicksold to zol for keys

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396034569#!/compare/1593129600/1593475200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313183297#!/compare/1593043200/1593475200

Sold with 1 key for Orb. Fire Backbiter's Billycock

Use there

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313183297#!/compare/1593475200/1593561600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198817400210#!/compare/1593216000/1593648000

Untrace

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198270949034#!/compare/1587945600/1588118400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051050346#!/compare/1587686400/1588032000

Untrace/gambled/bulk

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051050346#!/compare/1587686400/1588118400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097119648#!/compare/1587945600/1588204800

Untrace/gambled?

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097119648#!/compare/1587945600/1588377600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1588118400/1588204800

Untrace/gambled?

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1588204800/1588550400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198370756100#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200

8 keys match on buyer's side; likely sold for 8 keys.

Sales are at:

8

8.5

9.5

10

10

Classies - https://imgur.com/a/XjkE6J1

Buyers up to 8.17 keys, excluding 8.

Poorly bumped seller at 10 for 4 days, 3 day old seller at 12, 9 months seller for 13 and young unsold for ~14 keys (has owned it since April)

Taking the range as 8.5 - 10 keys!