Bp listings: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KVEED7X

seller at 17 keys

buyers at 10 keys

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Looking at this item: https://backpack.tf/item/3389589989

Sale #1 (bot sale)

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1590105600/1590192000

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190037043#!/compare/1590364800/1590451200

Bot.tf stats: https://prnt.sc/tjrv45

Sold for 17 keys

Sale #2

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190037043#!/compare/1590537600/1591056000

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1590883200/1590969600

Bp listings at time of sale: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQ9PZVW

Sold for 9.5 keys

Sale #3

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259122454#!/compare/1590537600/1591056000

Bp listings at time of sale: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4R03V3LE

Sold for 11 keys

Sale #4

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259122454#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101915413#!/compare/1591574400/1591660800

Sold with (~)4 keys for Smoking Bumble Beenie = 14 keys

See mini #1.

Sale #5

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101915413#!/compare/1594684800/1594944000

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198370392066#!/compare/1594598400/1594944000

Looks like it was sold for a Vivid Plasma Warhood and other negligible bits and bobs. The buyer doesn't show up in the Warhood's history, but the other stuff like the Cosa Nostra Cap and Ze Übermensch do. That's how I found what it was traded for. See mini #2.

Calling it at 14 keys as a reasonable approximation.

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Marketplace.tf sales: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30187;5;u33

Jun 8, 34.99/1.98 = 18 keys

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Mini #1: Smoking Bumble Beenie

Thanks to mah boy Shuffle Spy!

Sale #4.1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148221659#!/compare/1587513600/1587686400

Sold for Haunted Ghosts Snowcapped + 3 keys = 18 keys

Sale #4.2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148221659#!/compare/1587513600/1587686400

Sold for Blizzardy Storm Executioner = 22 keys

Sale #4.3

Sale 1 of this suggestion: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5efe6095dc503606f03fa76a

Sold for 15 keys

Taking the mean at 18 keys for this item.

Mini #2: Vivid Plasma Warhood

Sale #5.1

Here's one sale for 14 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198974703657#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

Not very rigorous, but I'm just trying to get a ballpark number.

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Sales #2 and #3 are low. Capping high end at current seller.

Sales at 9.5, 11, 14 (x2), 17, 18

Going with 14-17 keys.

Never mind sale #1, it's untrace :(...

18 key sale is good tho, so capping high end at seller.