The Sale:

Sold for 11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1592179200/1592265600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198320412894#!/compare/1589932800/1592265600

https://backpack.tf/item/6139471589

Gambled afterwards.

11 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/480;5;u57

$22.53, April 4th

$22.77, April 4th

$16, May 29th

$22.67, June 12th

$22, June 17th

$20, June 23rd

$20.99, July 1st

$20, July 17th

No snapshots past May 26th

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-04&price=22.77 - $22.77 / $1.72 = 13.24 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-04&price=22.53 - $22.53 / $1.72 = 13.10 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNR7ZXP8 - Don’t know if the sales on marketplace belonged to any of the sellers here. Wouldn’t affect the range if it did anyways.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-29&price=16 - $16 / $1.94 = ~8.247 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-12&price=22.67 - $22.67 / $2.00 = 11.34 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-17&price=22 - $22 / $1.98 = 11.11 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-23&price=20 - $20 / $2.00 = 10.00 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-01&price=20.99 - $20.99 / $2.02 = 10.39 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-17&price=20 - $20 / $1.97 = 10.15 keys

Couldn’t find any of the histories.

After rounding, we have:

8 keys

10.5 keys (2x)

13 keys (2x)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957284126 (#1-5)

https://backpack.tf/item/6139471589 (#6)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957474889 (#7-10)

https://backpack.tf/item/2464629852 (#11-

https://backpack.tf/item/2825894629 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7957219406 - scrap

Ignored all Robinoslav interactions as they usually only trade in bulk or obtain their items from gamblers, making their sales impossible to work out a possible value for.

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054448372#!/compare/1585785600/1585958400

Gambled afterwards.

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1592092800/1592179200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198865417288#!/compare/1592092800/1592265600

Gambled afterwards.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199010987801#!/compare/1592352000/1592524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1592352000/1592438400

Probably gambled.

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198269337198#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198269337198#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

#6

Untraceable, probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118157202#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081172172#!/compare/1592697600/1592870400

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115160019#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

Gambled afterwards.

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1592956800/1593043200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198976417795#!/compare/1592956800/1593475200

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358778649#!/compare/1593388800/1593475200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030214998#!/compare/1593475200/1593561600

#11

untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198883690218#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

#12

untraceable, bulk/gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198883690218 - backpack won't update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219918225#!/compare/1591315200/1591401600

#13

untraceable, bulk/gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219918225#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100484031#!/compare/1591315200/1591488000

#14

untraceable, bulk/gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100484031#!/compare/1591488000/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060458887#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

#15

untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060458887#!/compare/1591574400/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198862872493#!/compare/1591574400/1591660800

#16

untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198862872493#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349986297#!/compare/1591660800/1591747200

#17

Untraceable, most likely missing info in the history.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349986297#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600

https://i.imgur.com/seD1sZd.png - labelled as 7 keys + 27 ref

#18

untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072522163#!/compare/1591920000/1593907200

https://i.imgur.com/seD1sZd.png - labelled as 7 keys + 35 ref

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/EbcUTJB.png

https://backpack.tf/item/2825894629 - 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7957113160 - 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7957219406 - 15 keys

Sales at:

8

10

10.5 (2x)

11 (2x)

11.5

13 (2x)

2 month old seller at 11, excluding 11.5 and 13 (were marketplace sales)

One of the sales at 11 is a pure sale, so I’ll keep 11 in the range.

8 is an outlier, according to Blaze. Excluding 8.

Taking 8-11.