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Looking at this item: https://backpack.tf/item/8672390014
Sale #1
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073896407#!/compare/1590192000/1590364800
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036469000#!/compare/1590105600/1590192000
Sold for 25 keys.
The seller then used these 25 keys to buy a It's a puzzle to me Hellmet. That's why there are no keys on seller side.
Why 25 keys and not 24 like buyer side shows?
Hellmet was sold for 25 keys by Bender.
Listings at the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EPQ776K
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1590192000/1590278400
All the 25 keys trace to buyer except 1. That's why we see only 24 on buyer side.
Sale #2
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036469000#!/compare/1590105600/1590192000
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205723668#!/compare/1590278400/1590451200
untrace
Sale #3
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205723668#!/compare/1591660800/1591747200
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113971364#!/compare/1591660800/1591747200
Sold for Collector's Professional Killstreak Machina + 2 keys
Suggested value of the Machina is 23 keys so I'll call it at 25 keys just like sale #1.
Sale #4
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113971364#!/compare/1592006400/1592092800
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359982620#!/compare/1592006400/1592524800
Sold for Green Energy Backbiter's Billycock = 31 keys.
Aight Scourge, I'll use it 😉
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Looking at this item: https://backpack.tf/item/8313043782
Sale #5
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134220286#!/compare/1591142400/1591228800
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1591142400/1591228800
untrace
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Looking at this item: https://backpack.tf/item/8179917561
Sale #6
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358891317#!/compare/1588723200/1588896000
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079609540#!/compare/1589587200/1591142400
bulk
Sale #7
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079609540#!/compare/1591142400/1591574400
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964546925#!/compare/1592179200/1592265600
Since the item, became non-tradable, it looks like it was a SCM sale: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Voodoo%20Vizier
Jun 14, 44.85/2.51 =
18 keysMight not be that sale tho. Anyway it's way lower than the others.
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Going with 25-31 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359982620#!/compare/1597017600/1597104000 - The person who paid 31 sold for 12, so I'd exclude 31
You should look for sales for items like the Machina, since the "suggested" price isn't always accurate (it's based off of SCM listings/sales, somewhat)
Machina sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/526;14;kt-3 - $55.55 (29 Keys), $44.55 (24 Keys), and $40 (22 Keys)
https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Collector%27s%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Machina - Sold for $32.55 (low), $69.98 (28 Keys), $71.01 (29 Keys), and $131.16 (high)
22 - 29 averages to 25.5, which will make Sale 3 ~28 Keys.
25 - 28 Keys will work here.