Counter suggestion. Thanks to donut hole + Blaze for the info!

Link to other suggestion: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ef289c80b6fe979e327cb91

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1588809600/1588896000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161646859#!/compare/1588809600/1588896000

Untrace

sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161646859#!/compare/1593129600/1594425600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1593648000/1593734400

QS

sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263190057#!/compare/1589760000/1589846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093396587#!/compare/1586995200/1589932800

Untrace / Bulk

sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093396587#!/compare/1586995200/1589932800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1590451200/1590796800

Bulk

sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1590796800/1591142400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448501306#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000

Sold for 2 keys, and likely some ref.

sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1590710400/1590796800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198345696040#!/compare/1590710400/1590796800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213755751#!/compare/1590710400/1590796800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198345415891#!/compare/1590796800/1590883200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060561853#!/compare/1573430400/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1591574400/1591660800

not unusual till final compare

sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873477853#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202186637#!/compare/1592697600/1592784000

Untrace

sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198370309375#!/compare/1590883200/1592352000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1590796800/1590883200

QS

sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198447992809#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209153291#!/compare/1584057600/1590019200

Untrace/ not unusual

sale 10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874677360#!/compare/1591228800/1591315200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1591228800/1591315200

Bulk

sale 11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198878948902#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600

Untrace

sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198878948902#!/compare/1592697600/1593043200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600

QS

sale 13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1592784000/1592870400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173175225#!/compare/1592697600/1592870400

Untrace

sale 14:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173175225#!/compare/1592697600/1592870400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057317414#!/compare/1592611200/1592870400

Untrace

Sale 15:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057317414#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199727085#!/compare/1592956800/1593302400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1593302400/1593216000

Untrace / QS

sale 16:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092917792#!/compare/1563494400/1591920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204863571#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

QS for ~2.36 keys

sale 17:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204863571#!/compare/1592006400/1592092800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024694313#!/compare/1591660800/1592265600

transfer

sale 18:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024694313#!/compare/1592352000/1594166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074500784#!/compare/1591920000/1592784000

SCM

sale 19:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088793680#!/compare/1589068800/1589155200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125035818#!/compare/1589068800/1589155200

Untrace

Sale 20:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985399528#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263190057#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

SCM

sale 21:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263190057#!/compare/1589760000/1589846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198179253523#!/compare/1589760000/1589846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037674114#!/compare/1587254400/1589932800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1589414400/1590451200

Untrace

sale 22:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1590451200/1590796800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1590796800/1590883200

QS

sale 23:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198264313383#!/compare/1591747200/1592006400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100759439#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386441509#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110677513#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400

Not unusual until final compare

sale 24:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210069337#!/compare/1589673600/1591401600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1591315200/1591488000

Untrace

sale 25:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170118157#!/compare/1588377600/1587772800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199025023571#!/compare/1588291200/1588377600

Untrace

sale 26:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198885102216#!/compare/1588464000/1588550400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1588377600/1588464000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1588636800/1588723200

Untrace

sale 27:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1588723200/1588809600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198817887345#!/compare/1590796800/1594512000

Untrace

sale 28:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198817887345#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199018021198#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

Untrace

Sale 29:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199018021198#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093367267#!/compare/1593648000/1593820800

SCM

sale 30:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3007

$4.95 / $1.89 = 2.62 keys

$4.95 / $1.88 = 2.63 keys

$4.85 / $1.88 = 2.58 keys

$4.8 / $1.90 = 2.53 keys

$4.75 / $1.90 = 2.50 keys <--- https://backpack.tf/item/5383008563

$4.85 / $1.90 = 2.55 keys

$5.25 / $1.89 = 2.78 keys

$5.25 / $1.89 = 2.78 keys

$6 / $1.91 = 3.14 keys

$6 / $1.91 = 3.14 keys

$6.1 / $1.99 = 3.07 keys

$4.35 / $1.99 = 2.19 keys

$6.86 / $2.04 = 3.36 keys

$3 / $2.01 = 1.49 keys

$4.39 / $1.99 = 2.21 keys

$5.96 / $1.99 = 2.99 keys <--- https://backpack.tf/item/4114334946

$5.90 / $1.99 = 2.96 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4707845306 <-- one of the MPTf sales, can't trace.

Bot.tf:

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=1114&q=5&ef=Skill%20Gotten%20Gains&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

1 @ 2.55 keys,

1 @ 2.52 keys,

2 @ 2.26 keys,

1 @ 2.29 keys,

total sales @:

1.5

2.2 (x2)

2.25 (x2)

2.3

2.35

2.5 (x2)

2.55 (x3)

2.6 (x2)

2.65

2.8 (x2)

2.95

3

3.05

3.15 (x2)

3.35

buyers up to 2.29 keys,

https://backpack.tf/item/2903488289

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGLX9OR3

unsold for ~2.55 keys for a month and a half

https://i.imgur.com/VdPeyhy.jpg

6 month unsold for 3 keys,

SCM buy orders at ~2.51 keys:

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Spent%20Well%20Spirits

sellers on MPTf for ~3.35 keys,

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4R0EV9R5

new seller listing / unlsiting, matching lowest prices (~2.55)

Taking 2.3 - 3 keys