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I am so tired.
SALES
Sold for 15 keys + unpriced taunt (3.55 with buyers)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1592956800/1593129600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198279609240#!/compare/1593043200/1593129600
No recent sales on that taunt, but buyers are at around 3.55. Taking a conservative price of 3.55. (if buyers or a sale was at higher, it would cap here)
15 + 3.55 = 18.55 rounds to 19
Buyout was 20
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4P0GRLP5
Classifieds for the Jarate Shock Taunt:
https://gyazo.com/a6b1c05bb594ecee8764ebaa06a10773
Buyers at around 3.55~
Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118235963#!/compare/1588118400/1592956800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017911489#!/compare/1588032000/1588291200
MARKETPLACE
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30844;5;u3024
33.33 on June 1 (33.33/1.92 = 17.36 rounds to 17 keys)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-01
14 on June 4 (14/1.97 = 7.11 rounds to 7 keys)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-04
No buyouts found for either.
CLASSIFIEDS
https://gyazo.com/ba63d2d3541538554d8bc402a190e3b5
Sellers at 28 and 29.
Buyers range from 6 to 8.5.
SUMMARY
1 @ 7 keys
1 @ 17 keys
1 @ 19 keys
CONCLUSION
7 is a low outlier due to buyers at higher.
Taking 17-19 here.
New sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30844;5;u3024
$55 / $1.85 = 29.73 keys https://backpack.tf/item/7478431581 b/o was 28 (from your selling screenshot)
$44.99 / $1.88 = 23.93 keys https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXXK3DZ1 b/o was 25 https://backpack.tf/item/8194368610
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104146629#!/compare/1598659200/1598745600
14 keys + 2 tods
= 15
Jarate Shock Soviet sales:
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MQ01NP82 - sold untrace w/ b/o of 8
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252009972#!/compare/1596240000/1596499200 - 4 pure to criminal
"8" resold for 4 so eh, taking 4 is prolly fine, sale is still 19.
https://imgur.com/a/O12Jd7j 16 days @ 22
The new mp sales seem like high outliers esp considering the 16 day seller at 22, I would add 15 to the range and go 15 - 19 here.
Okay. That seems fair, will resuggest, thank you.