Sure this is better than current, but I don't think this is super accurate, as it is based on 2 mp.tf sales with no bot.tf buyouts and a ton of evidence suggesting lower trading points.

As for going on intuition, yes there is a chance I am wrong, but I would argue the odds I am wrong about each sale is very low:

1) DedAndrei doesn't cash trade (other than cashing out keys, and those are very obvious in his compares) or use mp.tf or anything, so all trades he makes will visible in compares. The group of 10 is the only one that makes sense. I would give my odds I am correct here are 95 to 5.

2) The 11 pure sale is the one I am the least sure of, however given a clean compare I would say the odds are 75 to 25 or so.

3) The stn sale was the listed price, or maybe a few ref less if the buyer had Unusuals.tf in their name to get the slight discount https://backpack.tf/item/7956454810 - was listed on there for stn.tf for over 2 months excluding the tradeback. I messaged SugarFreeCookies about how often he updates the stn prices (as that is the only way this sale was not the listed price) and ill let you know the response, but it I would bet it is almost never. I would give my odds on this sale 90 to 10.

I'll message DedAndrei to confirm his sale though, as it pains me to see suggestions pass with missing sales because sales are not 100% traceable :(

EDIT: I should mention that if DedAndrei's sale is 10 pure, it would not be countered by the buyers since they are only up to 9.7, not 10

EDIT 2: actually I am slightly less confident on the stn sale since if the comment here is correct, stn's price went down over time.

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f0001cbd225b6410b2bd8c2

Well imo Xergoyf wants to make sure that there is or isn't a common trade point that needs to be included here

update on how stn prices things: https://imgur.com/a/GUVU0w8

Seems like the exact price can't be trusted, but given the way Sugar updates prices it is likely to be very close.