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~19 keys
fragmented photons
Unusual Spiky Viking Fragmented Photons
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Bp listings: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD1WR5NV

new seller at 17 and 18 keys, older seller at 25 keys

buyers at 10 keys

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Looking at this item: https://backpack.tf/item/8920674484


Sale #1

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080074608#!/compare/1592611200/1593216000

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

Listings at time of sale: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4P0G1J26

Also see bot.tf stats

Sold for 15 keys


Sale #2

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1593388800/1593475200

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147532685#!/compare/1593129600/1593734400

See bot.tf stats

might be 17 keys, but actually untrace :(


Sale #3

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147532685#!/compare/1594339200/1594425600

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325595749#!/compare/1594252800/1594339200

Sold with Blizzardy Storm Das Hazmattenhatten, Showstopper Taunt: The Killer Solo, Screaming Tiger Taunt: Bad Pipes and some amount of keys for Cloudy Moon Conjurer's Cowl

Calling it untrace cause there must be some missing items


Sale #4

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325595749#!/compare/1594684800/1594944000

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025367258#!/compare/1594598400/1594944000

Sold for 14 keys.

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Looking at this item: https://backpack.tf/item/8712992817


Sale #5

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802224702#!/compare/1590019200/1590105600

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122274653#!/compare/1590105600/1590192000

Sold for Kill-a-Watt Towering Titanium Pillar of Hats

Based on current listings, the price would be around 9.5-11 keys making this a low sale.


Sale #6

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122274653#!/compare/1590105600/1590192000

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964546925#!/compare/1590105600/1592870400

untrace

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Looking at this item: https://backpack.tf/item/8378707722


Sale #7

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301456164#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198814345631#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

Sold for 10 keys Lower than current buyers

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Looking at this item: https://backpack.tf/item/8354160967


Sale #8

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059098316#!/compare/1593561600/1593648000

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162120088#!/compare/1593561600/1593648000

Sold with a bunch of outdated hats for other outdated hat

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Marketplace.tf sales: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31100;5;u138

May 12, 30.00/1.90 = 16 keys

May 20, 33.00/1.88 = 18 keys

May 23, 39.99/1.90 = 21 keys seems high

May 27, 25.51/1.92 = 13 keys

May 31, 40.00/1.91 = 21 keys seems high

Jun 15, 35.00/1.99 = 18 keys

Jul 10, 25.51/2.00 = 13 keys

Jul 16, 35.00/1.98 = 18 keys

Jul 29, 25.10/1.92 = 13 keys

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Bot.tf stats: https://prnt.sc/tr0f6c

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Sales:

10

13

14

15

16

18

21


Bunch of sales at 13 and 18 keys to support range


Going with 13-18 keys.

    https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31100;5;u138

    https://imgur.com/a/Y1PQCG7

    mp.tf buyers up to @ 26.41 / 1.91 = ~13.82

    both 13 sales were likely buy orders


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109583337#!/compare/1594684800/1596153600

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153789411#!/compare/1594598400/1596067200

    16 keys + .5 key sweet


    https://imgur.com/a/DmawLFx - bot.tf sales

    buy @ 15, buy @ 16, sale @ 17 - can't trace as you mentioned, sale @ 20


    20 keys sale https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000 (ID's match)


    That gives sales at:

    10

    13 (x2)

    14

    15

    16

    17 (x2)

    18 (x3)

    20

    21 (x2)


    Despite 20 being pure, there have been constant sellers under 20, so I think 20+ is fine to exclude, as for the low-end, because of the mp buyers ~14, I would go 15 - 18 here