Using last 2 months.

Sale 1:

Sold for 5 keys + 16 ref (~0.3 keys)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448830963#!/compare/1591747200/1592006400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198852603168#!/compare/1592006400/1592092800

https://backpack.tf/item/5386567806

https://i.imgur.com/L3hM9Rl.png - bot.tf confirms

Buyer sold a taunt to a bot, the keys and metal obtained from the item they sold went towards the sorcery.

5.3 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448501306#!/compare/1593734400/1593820800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198438695904#!/compare/1593475200/1593820800

https://backpack.tf/item/5386567806

Metal was crafted, not involved.

5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1593561600/1593648000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198398748909#!/compare/1593388800/1593648000

https://backpack.tf/item/5190762401

Buyer’s end shows 8 keys matching with the bot due to them buying multiple things from the same bot on the same day. We can look at the IDs of the keys to see which ones went to which taunt. The ID of the taunt when the buyer got it was 8957648172, so the keys that have similar IDs will be the keys that went towards this taunt.

https://backpack.tf/item/6921514773

https://backpack.tf/item/4759050296

https://backpack.tf/item/8550641632

https://backpack.tf/item/8482827794

https://backpack.tf/item/8390470275

These keys IDs are within like 100 numbers of each other, the other 3 keys were around 30k apart.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNR06P9J - As for the B/O not matching with the sale, the bot runs a script that matches/beats other sellers. We see a seller at 5 here, so it’s likely they lowered to 5 not long after this snapshot. The fact that this seller at 5 wasn’t there a couple hours prior supports this https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4297XR85

5 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 4 keys + 2 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396200903#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

https://backpack.tf/item/6935428961

4.05 keys

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 4 keys + 1 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102723028#!/compare/1590105600/1591574400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204863571#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

https://backpack.tf/item/5484546003

4 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30816;5;u3006

$8.80, June 8th

$10.49, June 9th

$9, June 11th

$10.49, June 12th

$10.49, June 17th

$8.95, June 25th

$12.71, June 28th

$12.22, July 13th

$8.80, July 14th

$13.99, July 19th

$14.99, July 21st

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-08&price=8.8 - $8.8 / $1.98 = 4.44 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-09&price=10.49 - $10.49 / $1.99 = 5.27 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-11&price=9 - $9 / $2.03 = 4.43 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-12&price=10.49 - $10.49 / $2.00 = 5.25 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-17&price=10.49 - $10.49 / $1.98 = 5.30 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-25&price=8.95 - $8.95 / $1.99 = 4.50 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-28&price=12.71 - $12.71 / $2.05 = 6.20 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-13&price=12.22 - $12.22 / $1.92 = 6.36 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-14&price=8.8 - $8.8 / $1.93 = 4.56 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-19&price=13.99 - $13.99 / $1.97 = 7.10 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-21&price=14.99 - $14.99 / $1.95 = 7.69 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/8529964666 - Probably June 11th or 12th

https://backpack.tf/item/5484546003 - June 17th, 25th, or 28th

https://backpack.tf/item/8276860395 - Most likely July 19th or 21st, the bot owner doesn’t have one listed on marketplace right now

Not going to bother checking listing snapshots since I can’t confirm any of the marketplace sales histories.

After rounding, we have:

4.45 keys (2x)

5.25 keys (2x)

7.7 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/8529964666 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/6935428961 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/6935428961 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/6496946448 (#4 & #5)

https://backpack.tf/item/5444628163 (#6)

https://backpack.tf/item/5386567806 (#7)

https://backpack.tf/item/5306718134 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/5190762401 (#9 & #10)

https://backpack.tf/item/5187740063 (#11 & #12)

https://backpack.tf/item/5278159211 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/5194984673 - site bot

https://backpack.tf/item/8276860395 - marketplace

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011587123#!/compare/1591401600/1591833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160231206#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

Probably marketplace

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210756877#!/compare/1591142400/1594598400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117379982#!/compare/1591142400/1591228800

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117379982#!/compare/1591142400/1591228800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396200903#!/compare/1591660800/1591747200

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362805161#!/compare/1592870400/1593388800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1593993600/1594080000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198392734059#!/compare/1593648000/1594166400

https://i.imgur.com/L3hM9Rl.png - Labelled as 5 keys + 15 ref

#6

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106948142#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106948142#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600

Too many sales around the time to get an exact value

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198852603168#!/compare/1592438400/1594080000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448501306#!/compare/1592352000/1592438400

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088354121#!/compare/1594252800/1595808000 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1595894400/1595980800

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358329781#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358329781#!/compare/1592179200/1592265600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1592179200/1592265600

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213569379#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400

Wasn’t unusual/missing a person in the history prior

#12

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213569379#!/compare/1592006400/1592092800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198958601005#!/compare/1591660800/1592092800

There’s also an untraceable bot.tf sale at 6 keys. Here’s the history of the item:

https://backpack.tf/item/6293875374

Sales at:

4

4.05

4.45 (2x)

4.5

4.55

5 (2x)

5.25 (2x)

5.3 (2x)

6.2

6.35

7.1

7.7

https://backpack.tf/item/5306718134 - worth noting that this seller had theirs listed for slightly under 5 keys which I was looking into sales. At the time of submitting, they didn’t have any listings, so it’ll probably come back up soon.

https://i.imgur.com/LHWca6n.png - Solid amount of buyers at ~4.1 keys, excluding 4 and 4.05.

Most of the sales lie around the 4.5-5.3 range, especially pure sales. Going to exclude the sales above 5.3, as they look like large outliers.

Average price of non-outlier sales is below 5 keys, so we round to the nearest 0.05 keys.

Taking 4.45-5.3.