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Taking over https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5eef89fb3812b81f0970c236
Copy pasting the proof as is because none of the proof is mine:
//
Proof by https://backpack.tf/u/76561198129335801
Thank you maGIK for providing new sales for this price suggestion !
Updating proof and prices.
Enchanted Carlton on Marketplace
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1168;5;u3025
Keys on Marketplace
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
March 14th
Sold for 17.92$
Keys were going for 1.72$
= 10.41 Keys
(Rounding to 10, using it as the low end)
March 16th
Sold for 17.92$
Keys were going for 1.70$
= 10.54 Keys
April 1st
Sold for 30$
Keys were going for 1.69$
= 17.75 Keys
April 29th
Sold for 28$
Keys were going for 1.82$
= 15.38 = 15 Keys
May 29th
Sold for 35$
Keys were at 1.94$
= 18.04 = 18 keys
(using this as the high end)
Classiefied listings to support the high-end
https://gyazo.com/f56621e093bb506ecde0962cf367dae8
Sell orders at 18 keys and 20 keys
//
Proof by https://backpack.tf/u/76561198156255538
https://imgur.com/a/q0utza7 - there were actually 3 sales @ 10.54 on March 16th
New sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1592870400/1593129600
Sold for 12 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418740133#!/compare/1593475200/1593648000
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y3W9LV0Q - B/O was 20
15 keys + Spooky Night Taunt: The Trackman's Touchdown (4.5)
//
Touchdown suggestion: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f13f4ebc8bbfc64e25c0f07
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106897791#!/compare/1586822400/1586908800
Festive Spirit Carlton (10, see mini) + 2 keys
//
Carlton Mini:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106897791#!/compare/1589328000/1589500800 - 10 keys
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1168;5;u3035
$17.05 / $2.01 = 8.48 keys
8.5 is buyers so taking 10 keys
Realistically, this sale is better used on the Carlton since there are less sales
//
Overall that gives sales at:
10
10.5 (x3)
12 (x2)
15
18 (x2)
Dom has been selling for 18 for at least 3 months now, making me think 18 is going to be high here. In addition mp.tf sellers are down to $30 = ~15 keys https://imgur.com/a/kmCn55s
The march sales are very outdated now, but they were at the time of your earlier suggestions: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ea7f5502b565a074c34a846
Sucks that this was left open for so long, so you should wait for mod imput before re-suggesting to make sure they don't miss it.
I would go 10 - 15 here, but I would wait for a mod comment before re-suggesting
//
Range suggestion by https://backpack.tf/u/76561198085880346
Since the sales at 10 and 10.5 are outdated, the range can be narrowed to 12 - 15, since the average from that is almost the same as 10 - 18.
Apologies for how long this has been up.
//
Finally, going with 12-15 keys, suggested by moderator