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going to take last 2 months here.
sales
sold for 26 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029568303#!/compare/1594339200/1594425600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983490591#!/compare/1593820800/1594339200
buyout was close enough
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WX5GGQX
untrace to quickbuyer
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198810076577#!/compare/1593388800/1594080000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029568303#!/compare/1593302400/1593388800
buy order was 23 keys~
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y3W9ODLE
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180923509#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198887447122#!/compare/1592179200/1592611200
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180923509#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600
buyout was 25 keys + 30 ref
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQW60X2
sold for 23 keys + 1 ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143892194#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000
buyorder was same
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5ZV3273
sold with tw billycock for bf larrikan?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1591228800/1591315200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966753371#!/compare/1591228800/1591315200
but then there seems to have been a tradeback right after, excluding.
https://backpack.tf/item/7441140065
marketplace
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30977;5;u19
66 on june 3 (66/1.96 = 34 keys~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-03
60.99 on june 8 (60.99/1.98 = 31 keys~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-08
66 on june 9 (66/1.99 = 33 keys~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-09
45.10 on june 19 (45.10/1.98 = 23 keys~)
64.99 on june 19 (64.99/1.98 = 33 keys~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-19
62.45 on june 25 (62.45/1.99 = 31 keys~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-25
62.45 on july 3 (62.45/2 = 31 keys~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-03
classifieds
https://gyazo.com/1c674ab1103e5fe25883645c7aeac5f2
buyers range from 22.8 to 23~
past sellers are around 26-28 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y80VO6RN
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLV7DDEG
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/429ROWPQ'
summary
2 @ 23 keys
1 @ 26 keys
3 @ 31 keys
2 @ 33 keys
1 @ 34 keys
conclusion
23 is a low outlier due to multiple buyers at 23~
although 26 seems low compared to the other sales, multiple past sellers at lower within the last 2 months, supports the inclusion of 26. not only that, 2 sales at 23 also supports 26 here.
taking 26-34 here.
Ton of support for the low-end here, 6 sales that round to 26 here https://imgur.com/a/EaX0PDw
I tried really hard to find buyouts for the mp sales but was unsuccessful. The problem is that every marketplace sale occurred when classies sellers were in the 26-28 range, which makes me really want to just go 26 flat, however in the interest of a balanced range and the fact that the market cleared up, im fine with keeping some mp sales. I would be fine calling 2 sales low (23s) and 3 sales high (33s and 34) and going 26 - 31
most of the sales you linked are past the 2 months range. im looking within the past 2 months time frame.
33, 34 (3 sales) is not too far off from 31 either, and current market does not suggest that the sales are high in this case. not only that, the sales at higher are on mptf, however, they are more recent than most of the sales you linked.
if we are looking at past 3 months (not preferred imo), 6 sales at 26, and 6 sales above 30~. the sales seem to balance out, and 23 is low due to buyers @ 23.
Just because the 23s are under buyers doesn't mean that they don't exist and we should ignore them. If were going back 3 months, there is also a mp sale @ ~24 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30977;5;u19 $44.99 / $1.88 = 23.93 keys which would make 3 lows and 3 highs.
Your missing the main point though, ALL of the marketplace.tf sales occurred with sellers at lower. That is an indicator that the marketplace.tf market does not represent the normal market, and backpack.tf prices should be the price a hat can sell for pure on the classifieds. Because the market has cleared up, I am fine including some of the marketplace.tf sales, and 31 seems like a logical cutoff given it is a common trading point (3 sales) and it balances outliers on each end.
Okay will resuggest then.