next

sales

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1590192000/1590278400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089478585#!/compare/1590192000/1590278400

buyout was 8 key + 16 ref

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4P0W10L5

5 keys traced?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1593216000/1593302400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202672367#!/compare/1593043200/1593302400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120801079#!/compare/1588982400/1594598400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219385392#!/compare/1576972800/1589414400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082136398#!/compare/1590451200/1590796800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148511293#!/compare/1590710400/1590796800

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1595376000/1595462400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1595376000/1595462400

likely one of the bot.tf sales

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1593993600/1594080000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1593993600/1594080000

i assume a bot.tf purchase below

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042617062#!/compare/1592006400/1592870400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400

mannco and stn exchange

https://backpack.tf/item/6739530548

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1590624000/1590710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198847199829#!/compare/1589673600/1590796800

buyout also 8 keys + 16 ref

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5Z6K807

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309001280#!/compare/1590537600/1590624000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600

bot.tf stats

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30984&q=5&ef=Circling%20TF%20Logo&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/2f5605d8f54a08dee2d5d7a7796003f4

1 @ 5.5 keys

7 @ 7.5 keys

2 @ 8 keys

marketplace

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30984;5;u11

20.99 on may 30 (20.99/1.94 = 11~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-30

sellers during this time > https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGLW6GRQ

16 on june 26 (16/2.03 = 8~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-26

20.99 on july 27 (20.99/1.92 = 11~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-27

sellers during this time > https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGLOE8L3

classifieds

https://gyazo.com/048611c61207932324e7ccc52ea8c213

sellers range from 7.55~ to 10

buyers range from 5.65~ to 5.75~

summary

1 @ 5.5 keys

7 @ 7.5 keys

3 @ 8 keys

2 @ 11 keys

conclusion

5.5 is a low outlier due to buyers. 11 is obviously high due to past and current sellers.

taking 7.5-8, as 8 is not far off here.