Using sales from June onwards.

Sale 1:

Sold for 2 keys + 42 ref (~0.75 keys)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137545628#!/compare/1596153600/1596240000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204863571#!/compare/1596153600/1596240000

https://backpack.tf/item/6273147175

2.75 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 2 keys + 35 ref (~0.6 keys)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188352065#!/compare/1592956800/1593907200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1593475200/1593561600

https://backpack.tf/item/7425751181

https://i.imgur.com/xZE2Cds.png - bot.tf confirms

2.6 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 2 keys + 35 ref? (~0.6 keys)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044750324#!/compare/1588723200/1591142400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

https://backpack.tf/item/6252737990

https://i.imgur.com/xZE2Cds.png - bot.tf confirms

2 keys match, and another appears in the seller’s backpack, as well as some metal exits the seller’s backpack. It’s very likely that they got the 35 ref, and used that, as well as some excess metal, and converted it into a key. Going to accept the sale as is.

2.6 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30843;5;u3008

$5.40, June 10th

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-10&price=5.4 - $5.4 / $2.01 = 2.69 keys

Can’t find the history.

Rounds to 2.7 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/8859075375 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7473222880 (#2-4)

https://backpack.tf/item/6741088278 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/6484311773 (#6 & #7)

https://backpack.tf/item/6253597278 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/6252737990 (#9 & #10)

https://backpack.tf/item/8694841296 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/6617871164 - marketplace

#1

Untraceable/SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091049661 - won’t update, doesn’t matter here though

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195547030#!/compare/1594425600/1594684800

Can’t tell what SCM sale this was.

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1591488000/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199018021198#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

2 keys match. Ref was probably included, but converted into keys.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087194662#!/compare/1594252800/1594684800

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087194662 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072725528#!/compare/1594684800/1595116800

Looks gambled, was definitely gambled after this

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1591142400/1591488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

https://i.imgur.com/xZE2Cds.png - labelled as 2 keys + 35 ref

There are 2 more bot.tf trades in this history, but they are both missing a seller/buyer. One of them was a 2 key + 30 ref purchase, the other was 3 keys + 25 ref. I’m sure as hell not going to be able to confirm the 2 key + 35 ref purchase, but the 3 key + 25 ref sale is clear as day

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1591740000/1591826400 - Exactly 3 key + 25 ref coming from Mopko. Looks like they bought it and dumped it on some site. Going to take the sale as is.

3.45 keys

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1592956800/1593043200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219918225#!/compare/1591660800/1593388800

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219918225#!/compare/1593388800/1594339200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051762989#!/compare/1593388800/1593475200

Probably gambled. Was gambled after this.

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073500295#!/compare/1591142400/1591747200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1591660800/1591747200

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1595462400/1596067200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331398297#!/compare/1596067200/1596153600

https://i.imgur.com/xZE2Cds.png - labelled as 3 keys + 25 ref

#10

Bulk for a spelled item

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331398297#!/compare/1596067200/1596153600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050726553#!/compare/1594598400/1596153600

Sellers/buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/o5L7VT4.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6252737990 - ~3.15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6741088278 - ~3.45 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6252906972 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6272251275 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6281021231 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6285405526 - 4 keys

A couple buyers at 2.6 keys

Sales at:

2.6 (2x)

2.7

2.75

3.45

Too many sales at or around 2.6 to be excluded. Keeping 2.6.

Average price of non-outlier sales is below 5 keys, so we round to the nearest 0.05 keys.

Taking 2.6-3.45.