and thats a wrap

sales

sold for 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1596153600/1596240000

buyout also same

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5Z3WWZ5

sold for 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304302520#!/compare/1593648000/1593734400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129154174#!/compare/1593561600/1593993600

buyout also same

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WXLZ7GZ

other are just exchanges between alt

https://backpack.tf/item/7077469564

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1591833600/1592006400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196659866#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080909224#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1591660800/1591747200

traced 4 keys + 220 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198871163068#!/compare/1591660800/1591747200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080909224#!/compare/1591660800/1591747200

buyout was 17~

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y7979PG9

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

buyout was like 15~

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZPWVGPQ

7 keys traced

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198189483697#!/compare/1591488000/1591833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

buy order was like 15~

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4J93X9OP

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095022965#!/compare/1594684800/1595376000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

bulky

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093995306#!/compare/1592956800/1593043200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095022965#!/compare/1592784000/1592956800

3 keys traced

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133820283#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093995306#!/compare/1592697600/1592956800

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061255698#!/compare/1592956800/1593820800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133820283#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

buyout was 15~

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQK3366

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030002462#!/compare/1591228800/1592265600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1592179200/1592265600

buyorder at 15~

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y80VG7Q9

traced 7 keys + 8.44 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310051697#!/compare/1594166400/1594252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198879945899#!/compare/1594080000/1594166400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197078062#!/compare/1593907200/1594166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310051697#!/compare/1594080000/1594166400

traced 11 ref + 0.5~ keys in sweets

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198927016136#!/compare/1594080000/1594166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197078062#!/compare/1593907200/1594166400

traced 3 keys + 20 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093995306#!/compare/1593993600/1594080000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198927016136#!/compare/1593993600/1594080000

sold with minor taunt for heart capotain

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313577745#!/compare/1593993600/1594080000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093995306#!/compare/1593907200/1593993600

fewer sales there, also already being used there anyways.

capotain: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f0e030e8fcdb4680b50b083

sold for searing western (14.5)+ minor strange (0.10~)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196919359#!/compare/1593907200/1593993600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313577745#!/compare/1593820800/1593993600

rounds to 15~

sold for 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198366567929#!/compare/1593820800/1594339200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196919359#!/compare/1593734400/1593820800

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107676964#!/compare/1593475200/1593561600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198366567929#!/compare/1593475200/1593648000

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216793315#!/compare/1593388800/1593561600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107676964#!/compare/1593388800/1593475200

sold for vivid warhood

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198811256996#!/compare/1593302400/1593388800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216793315#!/compare/1593216000/1593302400

fewer sales there, using there.

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1593302400/1593388800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198811256996#!/compare/1579478400/1593302400

untrace/bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171409190#!/compare/1593216000/1593475200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

bot.tf stats

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=324&q=5&ef=Cloud%209&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/64a24880e6430dd50d5cacd97da13640

1 @ 13~

1 @ 14

5 @ 15~

2 @ 16~

marketplace

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/324;5;u58

34.99 on may 8 (34.99/1.89 = 19~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-08

2 sold for 39.99 on june 19 (39.99/1.98 = 20~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-19

35 on july 14 (35/1.93 = 18~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-14

21.29 on july 17 (21.29/1.97 = 11~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-17

37.9 on july 28 (37.9/1.92 = 20~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-28

classifieds

https://gyazo.com/79966afac90a7d0b0ec5053d3826abc9

seller at 18

buyers range from 7 to 13.5~

past sellers

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4R03WW2E

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y3W1X601

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/466JORKL

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4O9R259Q

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y3WDJPJ0

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5ZKRD67

summary

1 @ 13

2 @ 15

1 @ 16

bot.tf

1 @ 13~

1 @ 14

5 @ 15~

2 @ 16~

mptf

1 @ 11

1 @ 18

1 @ 19

2 @ 20

conclusion

buyers at around 13 showing that 11 and 13 are low outliers.

quite a few past sellers, as well as current seller show that 18, 19, and 20 are high outliers.

15 seems to be the common trading point here. 14 and 16 are very close, and including both maintains the median as 15, going to include both here.

going with 14-16 here.