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I couldn't find any sales via compare links, but I have three in-date Marketplace.tf sales
Marketplace.tf sales: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1112;5;u3029
July 9 2020: Sale at $6.95 (median key price: $1.99, 6.95/1.99=3.49 keys)
July 12 2020: Sale at $10 (median key price: $1.98, 10/1.98=5.05 keys)
August 3 2020: Sale at $9.99 (median key price: $1.89, 9.99/1.89=5.29 keys)
In this case, the outliers are the sales at 5.05 keys and 5.29 keys (rounded to 5-5.5 keys)
It's still a good idea to include all the sales, even if you can't find anything in the compares:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047445236#!/compare/1593388800/1593993600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799616536#!/compare/1593388800/1596240000
untrace
https://backpack.tf/item/3110814308
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1588716000/1588802400
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=1112&q=5&ef=Jarate%20Shock&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script
Bot.tf points to this being a 4 keys sale, no endpoint though.
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y9QWVVZ0
https://backpack.tf/item/4437757476
not sure what the sale was here.
I would include 3.5 here, supported by the potential 4 key sale found by Scourge in the comments.