next

sales

sold with 35 ref for?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198320975769#!/compare/1590364800/1591747200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600

bulk/untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394877897#!/compare/1595030400/1596412800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1594944000/1595203200

sold for 19 keys + 7.33 ref (19~)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353309101#!/compare/1589068800/1589155200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394877897#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800

buyout was 19~

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLV1E30G

exchange with quicksell store and scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/7714201785

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994783413#!/compare/1596240000/1596326400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198388704687#!/compare/1596240000/1596326400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1595635200/1595894400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994783413#!/compare/1594684800/1596153600

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198388704687#!/compare/1596240000/1596326400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1596240000/1596326400

exchange with alt

https://backpack.tf/item/6832264163

tradeit exchange

https://backpack.tf/item/4222291772

last one scrap exchange

https://backpack.tf/item/5948058727

bulk/untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

sold for 19 keys + 14.44 ref (19~)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198343428818#!/compare/1592352000/1592611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200

sold for electrostatic lucky shot (17~)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198373611831#!/compare/1591660800/1592611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198343428818#!/compare/1592352000/1592611200

buyorder at 18~ around this time

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZPR68K1

lucky shot (closed by the submitter but was told to resgt at 14-19, average is 16.5, which rounds to 17)

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f09f1c2a97a9f333577e50c

2 new sales for lucky shot below

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143589141#!/compare/1594512000/1594598400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199071867725#!/compare/1594425600/1594684800

quickbuyer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199071867725#!/compare/1595721600/1596412800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985910282#!/compare/1595548800/1595721600

(invisible line leading back to the main suggestion)

bot.tf stats

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30647&q=5&ef=Atomic&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/bcb13ae7db3d7e747310b67436a323a6

2 @ 18

buyorder during the time of the second sale

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EP80NQE

also a seller at 18 during the same time

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EP80NQE

marketplace

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30647;5;u92

38.95 on may 8 (38.95/1.89 = 21~)

35.77 on may 8 (35.77/1.89 = 19~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-08

sellers during the time

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y3WEEDKQ > https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLV1E30G

39 on may 14 (39/1.9 = 21~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-14

https://backpack.tf/item/7957525282

sellers during the time

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZP1P3DX > https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y80JN22D

39 on may 15 (39/1.91 = 20~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-15

sellers during the time

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXX8V65P > https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0OV9232

47.99 on june 29 (47.99/2.01 = 24~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-29

sellers during the time

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXXOVPO7 > https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZP9785D

38 on august 2 (38/1.9 = 20)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-02

sellers during the time

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M19VQ787 > https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M19Q5W1O

43 on august 3 (43/1.89 = 23~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-03

https://backpack.tf/item/7840868625

sellers during the time

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M19VQ787 > https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M19Q5W1O

classifieds

https://gyazo.com/468037f196fa619853946e6baebc6f22

3x sellers @ 19

buyers range from 12 to 14~

scrap.tf

https://scrap.tf/unusuals/89

https://gyazo.com/14d459ad4b60110bf7b9bd19656baa5c

selling for 18~

summary

sales

1 @ 17

2 @ 19

bot.tf

2 @ 18

mptf

1 @ 19

2 @ 20

2 @ 21

1 @ 23

1 @ 24

conclusion

judging by all the sellers (past and current) it seems like 20 and above are high outliers.

17 seems low since there was a buyorder of 18~ during the time of the sale.

18 also looks low, but it was only 1 buy order, and they were successful in purchasing for 18, also a seller at 18 during same time.

going 18-19 here.