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https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30316;5;u19
Marketplace.tf Sales
$39.99 / $1.89 = 21.16 keys
Sale #1
Sold for 30 keys pure-
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157274202#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355796365#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200
Sale #2
Quicksold-
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1590278400/1590537600
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198356061896#!/compare/1589932800/1592611200
Sales @ 21, 30
Seller at 25 for a week and a half-ish, still going to take the 30 key sale as it is the most recent sale.
Taking 21-30
https://imgur.com/a/v5QE11e
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30316&q=5&ef=Circling+Heart&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0 - sale at 16 keys
your sale 2 was for the Dead Presidents Peacenik's Ponytail + Aces High Peacenik's Ponytail as seen in the first compare. not sure why you're excluding this sale, there is no indication that it was a quicksell. the dead presidents one will need to be mini'd since it's outdated.
i doubt sale 1 was for 30 keys pure given it appears the Purple Confetti L'homme Burglerre was involved as well.
given the above as well as a month unsold at 25 in classies as well as this seller on scm at 25 keys:
https://imgur.com/a/1eZGEqV
https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Toy%20Soldier?filter=Heart
i would exclude 30 here and make a range using sale 2
I might've gotten confused on the proces the unusuals had. I'll close the suggestion and work on the mini and I'll reopen once its done, thanks for the info!