Resuggestion, thanks to Xergoyf for the info!

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088354550#!/compare/1588550400/1589414400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1589328000/1589414400

Untrace

sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176593866#!/compare/1592611200/1592870400

Transfer

sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176593866#!/compare/1594684800/1594857600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157734256

sold to Avocado for keys, currently listed on MPTF. untrace.

sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086749028#!/compare/1588636800/1588723200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051307300#!/compare/1582588800/1588723200

Sold for miami Tartan(13.5) + 6 keys

Total is 19.5 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y9Q75DJ0

B/O of 15 keys, capping

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051307300#!/compare/1594684800/1596153600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1594944000/1595203200

QS

sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1596067200/1596153600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202427018#!/compare/1594684800/1596153600

Bulk

sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198242646048#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039283571#!/compare/1592438400/1592611200

Sold for keys, at least 6.

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039283571#!/compare/1592870400/1593820800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199044780296#!/compare/1593561600/1593993600

Sold for G Fetti Falkirk + 1 key

use there, low here

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNR9XJX5

B/O of 20 keys

Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199044780296#!/compare/1593561600/1593993600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1593907200/1593993600

QS for ~15 keys

Sale 10:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30173;5;u62

$19.89 / $1.89 = 10.52 keys

$35.99 / $1.98 = 18.18 keys

$35.99 / $2.00 = 18.00 keys <--- https://backpack.tf/item/7957368854

sale 13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304302520#!/compare/1591221600/1591308000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199021381443#!/compare/1591142400/1591228800

Sold for 17 keys

sale 14:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342161127#!/compare/1593734400/1593820800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198181597727#!/compare/1583798400/1593820800

Bulk(?)

total sales @:

11, 15, 15, 17, 18, 18 keys

buyers up to ~15 keys,

note that 15 capped sale from ~20 keys was sold during a time when buyers were ~13 keys....

Xergoyf's Part:

Buyers have been above 15 keys for almost 2 months now https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y79N86V9 I think id prefer a conservative drop to 17 - 18, I don't think 15 represents the market anymore. Sale 4 capping for much higher supports as well.