Resuggestion from https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f0e340606ce837414333253

//

The only two sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/921;5;u6

$49.00 = 25 keys

$53.99 = 28 keys

// Everything else:

https://backpack.tf/item/8201555316

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198976233202#!/compare/1586995200/1587081600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198999667088#!/compare/1586304000/1586995200

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198999667088#!/compare/1586995200/1587081600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1586908800/1586995200

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1589068800/1589155200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386195044#!/compare/1588982400/1589155200

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400448067#!/compare/1592784000/1592870400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156063753#!/compare/1592784000/1592870400

Bulk kinda

//

https://backpack.tf/item/7071972092 nothing

https://backpack.tf/item/1476455821 nothing

https://backpack.tf/item/7957030799 nothing

//

Stuff proving that this item went unsold for a long time before finally selling on Marketplace

1 on marketplace at $65.50, this screenshot was taken 7/14/2020

https://gyazo.com/81a9ad9ec586ee6ece50e4da5a8ffada

keys are $1.93 at this moment

https://gyazo.com/2aab78ca6d29a1df164b479c53f02e82

https://backpack.tf/item/1476455821

looks like it was in marketplace for... 8 days

and it was at least listed on 7/12/2020 for the same price

https://gyazo.com/7c2d7f9a01986fc7b6bf6113d6fc7f7e

(im refreshing the page so you can see the date at the top)

2 on dotaexo for $84.44 each

https://gyazo.com/c1c186d49551c711b7dc1c5882308f28

https://backpack.tf/item/8201555316

https://backpack.tf/item/7957030799

for 2 months each it seems

i cant find keys on that site for some reason

but $84.44 is surely under 53 keys

1 on mannco.trade for seemingly 3 weeks at $160.72

https://backpack.tf/item/8895859555

https://gyazo.com/6e1817b65645408b94dc516131f711db

supporting:

https://gyazo.com/95d7665d6d42f0fdbbf155312ca699eb

strange, 2 months at 40 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7071972092 has owned this item... since sept 2018? https://backpack.tf/item/7071972092

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y9GXK116

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EE091O6 well look at that

//

Conclusion:

Heavy drop using two recent Marketplace sales.