Looked into the last 3 months.

Sales 1 & 2:

Sold for 3 keys + 16 ref (~0.3 keys), twice

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357056190#!/compare/1591747200/1591920000

https://backpack.tf/item/4703726586

https://backpack.tf/item/7123934702

https://i.imgur.com/Q22qG5i.png - bot.tf confirms

Keys were around 54.33 ref at the time.

According to bot.tf, the purchases this bot made for both histories are in-date, but don’t appear traceable, so I didn’t include them.

3.3 keys (2x)

Sale 3:

Sold for 3 keys + 15 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1591740000/1591826400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1591660800/1591747200

https://backpack.tf/item/7482365161 - buyer dumped it on mannco before it was scanned in their backpack.

https://i.imgur.com/Q22qG5i.png - bot.tf confirms. We see exactly 3 keys + 15 ref in a group on the seller’s end, there’s no doubt it sold for that group of keys/metal.

3.3 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 3 keys (IDs match)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109583337#!/compare/1596326400/1596672000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198834922198#!/compare/1596672000/1596844800 (no prior compare link)

https://backpack.tf/item/5301258345

Near ID: 9078055475

3 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 3 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198834922198#!/compare/1596672000/1597276800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211431752#!/compare/1596499200/1596758400

https://backpack.tf/item/5301258345

3 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1108;5;u3009

$5.55, May 18th

$4.94, July 14th

$5.30, July 20th

$6.58, July 26th

$6.58, July 27th (2x)

$4.75, August 10th

https://backpack.tf/item/4473632814 - One of the July sales.

Couldn’t find any other histories. Didn’t bother looking through snapshots due to the lack of history confirmations we have.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-18&price=5.55 - $5.55 / $1.89 = 2.94 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-14&price=4.94 - $4.94 / $1.93 = 2.56 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-20&price=5.3 - $5.3 / $1.95 = 2.72 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-26&price=6.58 - $6.58 / $1.93 = 3.41 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-27&price=6.58 - $6.58 / $1.92 = 3.43 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-08-10&price=4.75 - $4.75 / $1.85 = 2.57 keys

After rounding, we have:

2.55 keys (2x)

[b]Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7949076890 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7510770761 (#2 & #3)

https://backpack.tf/item/7482365161 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/3812796504 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/3547992080 (#6-8)

https://backpack.tf/item/2753524958 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/2821203415 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/4196499573 - wasn’t unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/3267198995 - wasn’t unusual at the time

https://backpack.tf/item/3548736846 - marketplace, unsure if any sales occurred here

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167436981#!/compare/1596153600/1596240000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846846500#!/compare/1596240000/1596326400

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198230995084 - won’t update, nothing important in fallback.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1591660800/1594339200

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1594684800/1596585600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198185207746#!/compare/1590883200/1590969600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1590883200/1590969600

https://i.imgur.com/Q22qG5i.png - labelled as 2 keys + 30 ref

Only 2 keys + 1 ref appears. Looks like the metal was spent on the Bread Bites.

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198395226152#!/compare/1591660800/1592265600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083585325#!/compare/1587513600/1594166400

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1595376000/1595808000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358778649#!/compare/1595462400/1595548800

https://i.imgur.com/Q22qG5i.png - Labelled as 4 keys

Sale occurred during the poor inventory loading issue, missing someone in the history for sure.

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358778649#!/compare/1595548800/1595635200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1594684800/1596585600

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1596758400/1597190400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448501306#!/compare/1596758400/1596844800

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/qRO1w53.png

https://backpack.tf/item/3547992080 - ~2.85 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7510770761 - ~2.85 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4473632814 - 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4613572530 - 6 keys

Sales at:

2.55 keys (2x)

2.7 keys

2.95 keys

3 keys (2x)

3.3 keys (3x)

3.4 keys

3.45 keys

Average prices of the sale is below 5 keys, so we round to the nearest 0.05 keys.

I feel like 2.55-3.3 keys would be an acceptable range despite the sellers and buyers, but it does seem a little broad for this value. Going to trim it down and exclude 2.55, as well as 3.3 keys. The sales at 3.3 keys occurred more than 2 months ago, and the ones higher than that were marketplace sales, which aren’t a very accurate representation of the item’s pure value.

Going with 2.7-3 keys.