Resuggestion from https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f0df04a59822769947c5a7a

//

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30658;5;u8

April 18 - $52.20 / $1.79 = 29.16 keys

April 18 - $52.20 / $1.79 = 29.16 keys

April 18 - $59.90 / $1.79 = 33.46 keys

May 12 - $52.00 / $1.90 = 27.37 keys

June 2 - $40.11 / $1.94 = 20.68 keys

June 20 - $39.10 / $1.98 = 19.75 keys

June 23 - $37.50 / $2.00 = 18.75 keys

July 18 - $39.50 / $2.00 = 19.75 keys

July 29 - $39.45 / $1.92 = 20.55 keys

July 29 - $39.90 / $1.92 = 20.78 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/8095871708

//

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30658&q=5&ef=Haunted%20Ghosts&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/8b4722726a714fa04f34097aeb243504

Sales through bot.tf

1 @ 19 keys, 25.00 ref 5/9/2020, 8:18:43 AM

1 @ 24 keys 6/2/2020, 1:10:16 PM

1 @ 24 keys 6/2/2020, 3:34:02 PM

1 @ 24 keys 6/4/2020, 5:39:00 PM

Buys through bot.tf

1 @ 24 keys 4/18/2020, 6:21:22 PM

1 @ 24 keys, 25.11 ref 5/2/2020, 3:31:08 PM

1 @ 24 keys, 25.00 ref 5/4/2020, 9:18:56 PM

1 @ 19 keys, 31.22 ref 6/2/2020, 7:53:15 PM

1 @ 19 keys, 32.55 ref 6/6/2020, 11:08:10 AM

1 @ 19 keys, 26.44 ref 6/26/2020, 10:33:15 AM

1 @ 17 keys, 36.55 ref 7/13/2020, 9:41:47 AM

Normally I would ignore the buys, but in this situation, they provide a common trading point.

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141455733#!/compare/1593561600/1593648000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037674114#!/compare/1593907200/1594080000

Bulk

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986747837#!/compare/1587168000/1587254400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198982803000#!/compare/1586995200/1587168000

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198982803000#!/compare/1587168000/1587254400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1587081600/1587254400

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1587772800/1587945600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1587859200/1587945600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026526425#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026526425#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067719183#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067719183#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236669300#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067719183#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236669300#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1594339200/1594425600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1594339200/1594425600

52 item stack, which is 17 keys and refined to round up to 18 keys

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005023070#!/compare/1587168000/1587254400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075146778#!/compare/1587081600/1587168000

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075146778#!/compare/1589241600/1589414400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133868529#!/compare/1588896000/1589932800

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/item/7148094675

Everything until May 25, 2020 is tradebacks or gambling

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968633696#!/compare/1590451200/1590624000

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/item/7152068662

Went through scammer/alt

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968633696#!/compare/1586995200/1587168000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236669300#!/compare/1568419200/1587168000

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236669300#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067719183#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236669300#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067719183#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067719183#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199025023571#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199025023571#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198820335875#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198820335875#!/compare/1589328000/1589414400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273988414#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118157202#!/compare/1589414400/1589500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198408534626#!/compare/1589414400/1589673600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198408534626#!/compare/1589673600/1589760000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128112357#!/compare/1589673600/1589760000

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128112357#!/compare/1590192000/1590364800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072627257#!/compare/1590192000/1590537600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334946156#!/compare/1588550400/1588636800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1588464000/1588550400

49 item stack, which is 23 keys and refined

It was a quicksell, I remember because I bought one of those toadstools in the first compare link when that user was quickselling for pure

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1588896000/1588982400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129496130#!/compare/1588809600/1588982400

40 item stack, which is 21 keys and 19 refined

bot.tf does point to these two sales, and yes, Killua did take a loss on it

https://gyazo.com/1b5193b6c5970dd77a0e250a5f574f20

https://gyazo.com/b03d535a2a526f728e2309f6d25cd98b

just supports the drop more I suppose

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129496130#!/compare/1588809600/1588982400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053911511#!/compare/1588896000/1588982400

31 item stack, which is 24 keys and 7 refined

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053911511#!/compare/1593043200/1593129600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013127982#!/compare/1593043200/1593129600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013127982#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1593043200/1593129600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304302520#!/compare/1591142400/1591228800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197973915883#!/compare/1591228800/1591315200

13 keys + Purple Confetti Metal Modest (13.5 keys) https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ea369159512a22dba70e8ef

Caps at 24 key buyout https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZPRRG6Q

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197973915883#!/compare/1591488000/1591920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1594512000/1594598400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198871163068#!/compare/1594425600/1594512000

Doesn't seem to be the whole item stack in the first compare

Near ID 8996184423 leads to ~17.5 keys

Most likely is this bot.tf sale https://gyazo.com/7f631b35be2c53ff9e795e35716a61a3

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198871163068#!/compare/1594512000/1594598400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968633696#!/compare/1594512000/1594598400

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/item/7761665089 gambling

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110268703#!/compare/1592352000/1592611200

Untraceable, but might be a June 2nd 24 key sale

https://gyazo.com/73592aec4e831956cdbab224796a9a37

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110268703#!/compare/1592611200/1593561600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122274653#!/compare/1591315200/1592784000

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/item/8587302224 Nothing

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067213100#!/compare/1591833600/1592006400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

67 item stack, which is 18 keys and enough refined to round up to 19

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029568303#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

65 item stack, which is 18 keys and enough refined to round up to 19

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

70 item stack, which is 17 keys & 50.44 refined

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1596240000/1596326400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298602873#!/compare/1596326400/1596412800

Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Rocket Launcher

Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Scattergun

Killstreak Scottish Resistance

Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Axtinguisher

Sold by quicksell.store, this adds up to about 11 keys

Feels low, likely something else was involved

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298602873#!/compare/1597017600/1597190400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1597104000/1597190400

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198871163068#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968633696#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968633696#!/compare/1594684800/1594944000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1594771200/1595030400

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1595980800/1596153600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117941074#!/compare/1596153600/1596240000

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1596585600/1596672000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301441414#!/compare/1596585600/1596672000

0.77 refined matches, untraceable

///

Sales:

18

18

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

21

23

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

27

29

29

33

Classifieds 8/12/2020

https://gyazo.com/149c65c7f12f4f1540e5b3e85d823651

Three at 20 keys

One at 22 keys for 1 month

https://gyazo.com/d2a71b64f76833e095ab925c36557e80

Marketplace: One seller selling two at $41 and $42 - Approximately 22 and 23 keys

Worth noting that most of the 24 key sales were from two to three months ago.

Probably would've been better if I took a 2 month time frame instead of a 3 month, thinking back in hindsight.

Despite so many sales at 24, I am going with a lower range of 18-21, looking at current unsold. The market has clearly shifted from 2-3 months ago compared to 1-2 months ago.

10800 characters :o