sales

mptf/scammer exchanges

https://backpack.tf/item/8156947627

https://backpack.tf/item/8307855306

https://backpack.tf/item/8230513690

untrace, sold to item bot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036511368#!/compare/1593820800/1594252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1594166400/1594252800

sold with midnight whirlwind flippin awesome (seller at 5) for pe polar cap (buyers at 22, seller at 23)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418740133#!/compare/1597190400/1597276800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198959775799#!/compare/1597190400/1597276800

22.5 - 5 = 17.5 rounds to 18~

sold for 20 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198928347702#!/compare/1597104000/1597190400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354692517#!/compare/1597104000/1597276800

untrace, sold to "dispenser"

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192421493#!/compare/1591920000/1592524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198928347702#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

traced 54 refined?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093438754#!/compare/1593734400/1593820800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075491803#!/compare/1593734400/1593820800

buyout was 19.5~

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXX51691

traced about 1.65 keys of items~

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334575467#!/compare/1592352000/1594252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093438754#!/compare/1592265600/1592352000

sold for logo dayjogger (27)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001673221#!/compare/1597363200/1597449600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073025812#!/compare/1597363200/1597449600

buyout was 20 (lech)

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXXZ512P

sold for 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307510760#!/compare/1596931200/1597190400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001673221#!/compare/1597104000/1597190400

buyorder was 15?

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4J9XK9NX

bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097499917#!/compare/1596844800/1596931200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054198170#!/compare/1596672000/1596931200

bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198930954301#!/compare/1596585600/1596672000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097499917#!/compare/1596585600/1596672000

sold for 18 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113065088#!/compare/1591920000/1596931200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198930954301#!/compare/1591488000/1591920000

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093438754#!/compare/1594339200/1594425600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967470975#!/compare/1592697600/1594339200

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198920227339#!/compare/1594339200/1597017600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093438754#!/compare/1594252800/1594339200

buyorder was 10~

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M19P2GO0

sold for 20 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1593302400/1593388800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198920227339#!/compare/1592870400/1594339200

histories/id dont match, but b/o matches

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4J9L1EDP

bot.tf stats (i have covered the sales above coincidentally)

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=31058&q=5&ef=Abyssal%20Aura&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/5101fcd96a7a1c5085cc1659bb59e1cb

1 @ 15

1 @ 14

1 @ 12

mptf

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31058;5;u125

34 on may 17 (34/1.89 = 18~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-17

https://backpack.tf/item/8268453294

34 on may 26 (34/1.93 = 18~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-26

https://backpack.tf/item/8293998045

34.99 on may 31 (34.99/1.91 = 18~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-31

https://backpack.tf/item/8230513690

35 on june 1 (35/1.92 = 18~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-01

38 on june 22 (38/1.98 = 19~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-22

https://backpack.tf/item/8293998045

38 on july 15 (38/1.99 = 19~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-15

38.5 on july 18 (38.5/2 = 19~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-18

38.5 on july 26 (38.5/1.93 = 20~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-26

39 on july 27 (39/1.92 = 20~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-27

39.95 on august 5 (39.95/1.9 = 21~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-05

https://backpack.tf/item/8268453294

39 on august 14 (39/1.8 = 22~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-14

classies

https://gyazo.com/c03fcc2985ff7a58786d7bcd1d94eb39

summary

sales at 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, 18, 20, 20, and 20.

mptf sales at 18, 18, 18, 18, 19, 19, 19, 20, 20, 21, and 22.

conclusion

going to exclude 12 to 15 due to being buyorders, and under current buyers. going to exclude 16 as well, since it was to a buyorder.

4 current sellers at 20, showing that 21 and 22 are somewhat high.

going with 18-20 as that seems to be the common trading point here.