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counter.
sales
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1594771200/1596067200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075581725#!/compare/1592611200/1596326400
apparently vincent dumped theirs on mannco
https://gyazo.com/dcbd97009cd002782c58048935b4f745
mptf
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31066;5;u129
65 on july 15 (65/1.99 = 33~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-15
35 on july 18 (35/2 = 18~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-18
85 on july 19 (85/.97 = 43~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-19
classies
https://gyazo.com/cfdf3c31eb386d1cbe9a61c8505fd6cc
mannco listing
https://mannco.trade/
https://gyazo.com/9d2b21670baf24a9447d28c5a106ece4
$166.84/$3.92 = 42~
summary
sales at 18, 33, and 43.
conclusion
18 is under buyers.
the mannco listing is under 43, but not sure how long it's been there. regardless it would round to 43.
in the span of 4 days, 3 sales occurred, and i have a feeling one of the lower sales was flipped for 43. (not sure because i do not know where the history is located at)
going with 33-43 for now.
I paid $35 via a buyorder on the 18th, I then dumped it to mannco as you say.
Technically that sale could be used, but it would end up within the range anyway.