Suggestion: Terror-Watt Front Runner at 13–17 keys

https://i.imgur.com/kIxe0jE.png - labelled as 12 keys + 44 ref. We see exactly 44 ref on the seller’s end match, so I don’t doubt it also sold for the keys.

13 keys

Sale 7:

Sold with Schadenfreude (~1.5) for Searing Western Wear (14.5)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872227078#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196919359#!/compare/1593043200/1593216000

https://backpack.tf/item/1804087002

13 keys

Sale 8:

Sold to a bot for 10 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070744678#!/compare/1593907200/1593993600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1593907200/1593993600

https://backpack.tf/item/2493940334

10 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/760;5;u57

$25.99, June 2nd

$27, June 3rd

$29.95, July 4th

$29.95, July 30th

$29.95, Aug 2nd

https://backpack.tf/item/7956881431 - June 2nd or 3rd

https://backpack.tf/item/2345331215 - June 2nd or 3rd

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y79NZ168 - 13.2 key seller appears to belong to one of the sales. can’t tell which one.

Couldn’t find remaining histories.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-02&price=25.99 - $25.99 / $1.94 = 13.40 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-03&price=27 - $27 / $1.96 = 13.78 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-04&price=29.95 - $29.95 / $2.00 = 14.97 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WXL7PVN - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-30&price=29.95 - $29.95 / $1.92 = 15.60 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WXO21LX - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-08-02&price=29.95 - $29.95 / $1.90 = 15.76 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/429V02ZV - No important B/O

After rounding, we have:

13 keys

14 keys

15 keys

16 keys (2x)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/2493940334 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/1804087002 (#3-15)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956428420 (#16)

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198796031194#!/compare/1590192000/1590278400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1590192000/1590278400

https://i.imgur.com/kIxe0jE.png - labelled as 12 keys + 32 ref

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128815733#!/compare/1593043200/1596844800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070744678#!/compare/1592870400/1593216000

Only a couple keys match on the buyer’s end.

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044321640#!/compare/1592092800/1594166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158489685#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200

3 keys match on the seller’s end.

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158489685#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050433855#!/compare/1592524800/1592697600

Probably sold for 13 keys, but can’t confirm. Buyer doesn’t show up on the history of the item, but they definitely owned it, which I’ll show in #5.

Bulk for DBD Thirst Blood

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050433855#!/compare/1592524800/1592697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203811797#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600

ID of the new owner of the thirst blood matches with those items. Using on the Thirst Blood.

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203811797#!/compare/1592697600/1592784000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1592697600/1592784000

https://i.imgur.com/kIxe0jE.png - labelled as 12 keys + 44 ref

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1592697600/1592784000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334860631#!/compare/1592784000/1592870400

https://i.imgur.com/kIxe0jE.png - labelled as 13 keys

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334860631#!/compare/1592784000/1592870400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138848488#!/compare/1592611200/1592870400

Looks like it may have sold for ~13 keys

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1592956800/1593043200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198360479576#!/compare/1593043200/1593129600

https://i.imgur.com/kIxe0jE.png - labelled as 12 keys + 46 ref

Missing a person from the history.

#10

Sold for Steaming Towering Pillar + ~3 keys in pure/items

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198360479576#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872227078#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WXLPX2Z - B/O of 15. Will either cap or fall into the range.

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196919359#!/compare/1593216000/1593302400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203811797#!/compare/1593216000/1593302400

#12

Bulk for Burning Towering Titanium Pillar + cheaper stuff

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203811797#!/compare/1593043200/1593216000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421958844#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

#13

Bulk for Beams Warhood + negligible stuff

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421958844#!/compare/1593648000/1593734400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153874080#!/compare/1593648000/1593734400

#14

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198401979062#!/compare/1593907200/1594166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198968489532#!/compare/1593993600/1594080000

Only the Pro. KS Aus Axtinguisher matches.

#15

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198968489532#!/compare/1593993600/1594080000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839307425#!/compare/1593993600/1594080000

https://i.imgur.com/kIxe0jE.png - labelled as 12 keys + 27 ref

#16

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125295460#!/compare/1597017600/1597104000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1597017600/1597104000

ref matches on the seller’s end.

Sellers:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/760;5;u57

https://backpack.tf/item/7956428420 - $29.95 (~16.5 keys)

https://backpack.tf/item/2493940334 - $29.95 (~16.5 keys)

Sales at:

13 (5x)

15 (2x)

16 (3x)

10 is an outlier, excluding 10.

Taking 13-17.