Counter to https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f078dd3e005b83c1c100e0d

Copy pasting proof as is because none of it is mine

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Suggestion by https://backpack.tf/u/76561198232041512

Proof by https://backpack.tf/u/76561198050762233

Team #4 Suggestion #4

Credits to: 🐧 Clapped Out 🐧

Marketplace Sales

$15 / $1.79 = 8.38 keys

$23.99 / $1.98 = 12.12 keys

$39.99 / $1.99 = 20.01 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/8402260117

https://backpack.tf/item/4035992403

Looking at this item: https://backpack.tf/item/4035992403

Sale #1

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079800631#!/compare/1589241600/1589500800

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

Sold to bot

Sale #2

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061353482#!/compare/1587513600/1592611200

Marketplace dump

Sale #3

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061353482#!/compare/1592611200/1592870400

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030214998#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200

Gambling

Sale #4

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030214998#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600

Scrap.tf dump

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Looking at this item: https://backpack.tf/item/8402260117

Sale #5

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993631639#!/compare/1589846400/1589932800

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004835654#!/compare/1588723200/1590019200

Sold for Circling Peace Sign Old Guadalajara(9-10 keys)

Note from Beaser: Realizing this is not usable since its a site trade :(

Sale #6

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004835654#!/compare/1590019200/1590969600

buyer: untraceable

untraceable

Sale #7

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199001697559#!/compare/1593561600/1593648000

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292161558#!/compare/1593561600/1593648000

listings at time of sale: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4J9LNRR7

Sold for 12 keys 15 ref ≈ 12 keys

Note from Beaser: 12 keys match from buyers side, which the 8 keys were to buy the peace sign airdog

Sale #8

seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292161558#!/compare/1593648000/1593820800

buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1593648000/1593907200

Sold for 11 keys

Quicksell

Sales at 8.5, 9.5, 11, 12, 12, and 20

Im a bit iffy about this, there is one unsold in classifieds and one in scrap.tf

Even if buyers are at 11.7, the common trading point is at 11 - 12, so going with that

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Proof by https://backpack.tf/u/76561198156255538

New sales:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105202041#!/compare/1597017600/1597104000 - 14 keys from scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/item/4035992403 - was in and out twice, means prolly 2 sales @ 14

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/429V5Q2Z

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1596326400/1596412800

https://backpack.tf/item/4035992403

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1596844800/1596931200

https://backpack.tf/item/8402260117

Both Julia + Toad likely sold for 13

11 was sold to Toad, so I would prolly exclude 11 and go 12 - 14 for a more conservative drop.

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Going with 12-14 keys.