thanks unnamed human, george, mockingbird, and xergoyf!

sales

Sold for 47 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198274006629#!/compare/1589587200/1589760000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190688419#!/compare/1589587200/1592092800

Buyout was close enough.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXX8N1QD

mptf

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1157;5;u3035

199 on June 15 (199/1.99 = 100 keys)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-15

Likely this history:

https://backpack.tf/item/5564189584

Doesn't appear to be a buyout for this sale.

220 on July 25 (220/1.93 = 113.99 rounds to 114 keys)

https://backpack.tf/item/4070780699

Buyout was 110

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5Z3NV23

140 on august 16 (140/1.79 = 78~)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-16

classies

https://gyazo.com/9cad0e2e0932577b48084bb4c67516ea

2 young sellers at 100, they decreased from 150 to 100 within the past day.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLVK3DWZ

summary

sales at 47, 78, 100, and 110.

conclusion

47 under buyers, going to exclude.

both sellers are extremely young, going with 78-110.