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Only pricings were on community market for $57.50, and 3 sold on marketplace.tf, being $23.95, $9.50, and $17.99, with the middle being a quicksell. Without the quicksell the prices average $20.97, about my pricing. I also analyzed the prices of some hats of same grade and effect from the same and cases preceding and following it, with the price of the unique hat compared to the unusual to get a price.
You need actual sales and not just maths and "analysis"
Have checked the sales on mp:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31000;5;u36
You can exclude the first sale, it's outdated. The second sale is as you said, a quick sell so exclude too.
This leaves your purchases at 17.99 which should be around 10 keys or so, I'd resuggest at 10 keys if that's the case
Links man u forgot the links.
Also, you have to divide the sales of the hat to the median price of keys on that day.
I largely ignore Steam Market purchases as is hard to determine what hats are sold at what day, unless you hawk SCM every single day and observe the changes in the listings.
http://backpack.tf/rules