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Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1594944000/1595462400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212822955#!/compare/1594684800/1596240000
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=31028&q=5&ef=Circling%20TF%20Logo&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script
Untraceable
Sale 2:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31028;5;u11 - Jun 17
$30 / $1.98 = 15.15 keys, https://backpack.tf/item/8524687968 - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/429K1697
= 14 keys.
Going with 14 keys.
Worth noting that IDs don't save you on sale 1 because the paint job on the hat was changed and backpack.tf never picked it up and gave us a new ID. I didn't see any batches of keys that looked consistent; I even tried to look for keys from the Disco Beat Down bot, which is who the seller sold their original hat to for presumably keys.