was fun

sales

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198384492634#!/compare/1590624000/1590710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026668192#!/compare/1565913600/1594166400

exchanged from bot.tf?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309563748#!/compare/1597363200/1597449600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049677507#!/compare/1590192000/1597449600

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448501306#!/compare/1594944000/1595030400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200931923#!/compare/1594598400/1596672000

sold for 2 keys + 18 ref (0.379)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027384016#!/compare/1592611200/1593734400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448501306#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200

2.4~

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210225228#!/compare/1594684800/1596326400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275956888#!/compare/1597881600/1597881600

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198382290208#!/compare/1593388800/1593475200\

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210225228#!/compare/1593302400/1593475200

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041934309#!/compare/1593216000/1597881600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198382290208#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

traced 19.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199002672790#!/compare/1597622400/1597708800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053252981#!/compare/1597622400/1597708800

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198995920102#!/compare/1596585600/1596672000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199002672790#!/compare/1596412800/1596844800

2 scrap exchanges

https://backpack.tf/item/9015587316

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199017092846#!/compare/1596153600/1597363200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164681999#!/compare/1594512000/1596153600

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198384492634#!/compare/1593820800/1593907200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198434609353#!/compare/1593734400/1593820800

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311345646#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198384492634#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200

exchanges with storage/stn/development

https://backpack.tf/item/6479511906

traced 2 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1591488000/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083622795#!/compare/1590883200/1590969600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1590796800/1591142400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199044954110#!/compare/1590710400/1591142400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083622795#!/compare/1590796800/1590883200

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071082937#!/compare/1590624000/1590710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199044954110#!/compare/1590278400/1590710400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024694313#!/compare/1592352000/1594166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199047406352#!/compare/1596326400/1596326400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204863571#!/compare/1591228800/1591315200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024694313#!/compare/1591142400/1591488000

18 ref traced

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126246920#!/compare/1591056000/1591228800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204863571#!/compare/1591142400/1591228800

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043684553#!/compare/1590624000/1590710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126246920#!/compare/1590537600/1590796800

untrace, to bp buyer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008475806#!/compare/1590451200/1590796800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043684553#!/compare/1590364800/1590451200

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970869719#!/compare/1597708800/1597795200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355725129#!/compare/1597622400/1597708800

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030058573#!/compare/1597622400/1597708800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970869719#!/compare/1597536000/1597622400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074043822#!/compare/1597536000/1597622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030058573#!/compare/1597449600/1597622400

tradeit/scrap exchanges

https://backpack.tf/item/6480332734

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340639424#!/compare/1594598400/1596153600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1594512000/1594598400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225931332#!/compare/1594512000/1594857600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340639424#!/compare/1594339200/1594512000

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1594080000/1594166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225931332#!/compare/1592870400/1594166400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024694313#!/compare/1592352000/1594166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1592265600/1592352000

looks like bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204863571#!/compare/1591574400/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024694313#!/compare/1591574400/1591660800

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132111326#!/compare/1591574400/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204863571#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321700083#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132111326#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199000354978#!/compare/1592524800/1596931200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118157202#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118157202#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

exchanges with qs store/mannco/tradebacks

https://backpack.tf/item/6815524602

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1593388800/1593475200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240537922#!/compare/1585526400/1593475200

untrace/bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240537922#!/compare/1593561600/1593648000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118157202#!/compare/1593475200/1593561600

untrace/bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198382290208#!/compare/1597104000/1597190400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210225228#!/compare/1596931200/1597104000

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037674114#!/compare/1594425600/1596931200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198382290208#!/compare/1596844800/1596931200

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199011488010#!/compare/1596672000/1596758400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037674114#!/compare/1594425600/1596931200

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118157202#!/compare/1596585600/1596844800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199011488010#!/compare/1596585600/1596672000

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153877379#!/compare/1596672000/1596844800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118157202#!/compare/1596585600/1596672000

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1596585600/1596672000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153877379#!/compare/1596326400/1596672000

exchanges with qs store/mptf

https://backpack.tf/item/8724838163

sold for 2 keys + 8.21 ref in sweets~(0.173)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198343461118#!/compare/1596067200/1596153600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799700978#!/compare/1596067200/1596153600

2.15~

traced ks rune blade

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198828917468#!/compare/1594512000/1596326400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198343461118#!/compare/1594425600/1594512000

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316571500#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198828917468#!/compare/1591920000/1597622400

bot.tf stats

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30917&q=5&ef=Midnight%20Whirlwind&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/a955852adfcc806b5927edf605072792

3 @ 2 keys + 30 ref (2.65~)

4 @ 2 keys + 18 ref (2.4~)

mptf

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30917;5;u3008

4.25 on may 23 (4.25/1.9 = 2.25~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-23

5.64 on may 28 (5.64/1.91 = 2.95~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-28

https://backpack.tf/item/6468800984

5.64 on june 2 (5.64/1.94 = 2.9~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-02

5.64 on june 4 (5.64/1.97 = 2.85~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-04

https://backpack.tf/item/7409529197

5.94 on june 8 (5.94/1.98 = 3~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-08

5.45 on july 7 (5.45/1.98 = 2.75~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-07

5.45 on july 8 (5.45/1.99 = 2.75~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-08

https://backpack.tf/item/7409121400

classies

https://gyazo.com/b36d1217005f443a648f3efc033a6c9b

summary

sales at 2, 2.15 and 2.4.

bot.tf sales at 2.4, 2.4, 2.4, 2.4, 2.65, 2.65, and 2.65.

mptf sales at 2.25, 2.75, 2.75, 2.85, 2.9, 2.95, and 3.

conclusion

excluding all sales below 2.38, as theres quite a few buyers up to 2.38.

2.4 is low, but it's quite common to include here as the low end.

going with 2.4-3 here.