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Credit to a bunch of a bunch of a bunch of a bunch of people in the Discord server
https://backpack.tf/item/5195117539
12 keys pure (the ID of the 44 keys and 1 ref matches the ID of the Elfin Deal, but only 12 of them came from the buyer in the item history, the rest match the buyer of the seller's Death at Dusk Pardner's Pompadour)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197992659090#!/compare/1596412800/1596931200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209640976#!/compare/1596844800/1596931200
Seller's listing to confirm it https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLV9VXN5
Untrace:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032656960#!/compare/1594771200/1596153600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197992659090#!/compare/1594512000/1596153600
Going with 12