credits to beaser, xergoyf, and myself.

sales

Sold for 5 keys + 29.11 refined

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122096342#!/compare/1592006400/1592092800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400492976#!/compare/1592006400/1592092800

Rounds to 5.5 keys

Bulk for TW Shako

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078883887#!/compare/1591488000/1591660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068732040#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311860283#!/compare/1590019200/1591401600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1589932800/1590019200

Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147#!/compare/1586908800/1587081600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1586908800/1586995200

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323414731#!/compare/1586908800/1586995200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147#!/compare/1586822400/1586908800

Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198283225178#!/compare/1586822400/1586908800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198837807766#!/compare/1585785600/1586908800

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199020787716#!/compare/1596153600/1596499200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199035016731#!/compare/1596412800/1596499200

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199035016731#!/compare/1596499200/1596672000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342161127#!/compare/1596412800/1596499200

untrace/maybe gamble

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986747837#!/compare/1596499200/1596672000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199020787716#!/compare/1596153600/1596499200

sold with 6 keys for?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1596412800/1596499200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986747837#!/compare/1596240000/1596499200

scammer sold to bot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311860283#!/compare/1590019200/1591401600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1589932800/1590019200

quite a few tradebacks/scammer exchanges here.

https://backpack.tf/item/2383364918

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198960165586#!/compare/1597190400/1597276800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060742533#!/compare/1597104000/1597276800

untrace, might be 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197984373540#!/compare/1597104000/1597190400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198960165586#!/compare/1597104000/1597190400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126695508#!/compare/1597104000/1597190400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197984373540#!/compare/1597104000/1597190400

untrace/bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1596672000/1596758400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126695508#!/compare/1596672000/1596758400

but old buyout was 6.1

https://gyazo.com/f9da6ef4d7ac0df87f56c96ca2d9a0ce

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1596672000/1596758400

Probably sold for ~6.2, from the selling ss.

https://imgur.com/a/9LEgIac

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1596492000/1596578400

Untrace bot.tf sale @ 6

https://backpack.tf/item/7957613628

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1595203200/1595030400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1596067200/1596153600

Another 2 likely sale @ 6, first one had a 6.2 b/o in selling, second has 2 groups of 6 keys with only 2 realistic hats that it could of sold for.

Also https://backpack.tf/item/2383364918 from your screenshot sold with a b/o of 6 (also untrace)

mptf

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30049;5;u59

2 for $13.33 on july 31 (7~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-31

one of the july 31 sales is capped by a b/o of 6.4 seen in your selling screenshot (apollo's).

classies

summary

5.5

6 (x5, all untrace)

6.5

7

conclusion

Buyouts are far too common at 6, even if there is nothing fully traceable. 5.5 is probably low here, and 7 is likely high here.

going with 6-6.5 here.