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4 years outdated...
Histories with sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/8034071854 -> several sales
Sale #1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993686702#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027302727#!/compare/1592352000/1592524800
Untraceable...
Sale #2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027302727#!/compare/1592438400/1592611200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1592438400/1593216000
Sold for 9k (histories of keys shows this)
Sale #3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1593302400/1593648000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993686702#!/compare/1593388800/1593561600
Sold for 10k - history of keys confirms this
https://backpack.tf/item/7956722893 -> Several sales - however, this was also involved with the vast majority of owners, from the previous history so i will try my best to see what it also sold for, as it may be a struggle tryna find how much this one sold for, instead of the other one...
Sale #1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993686702#!/compare/1592438400/1592611200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027302727#!/compare/1592352000/1592611200
Untraceable... thought it might have been the C9 voodoo juju as histories show from Carter to russian guy, however this shouldnt be the case as it should be from the russian guy to Carter... This may be a seperate trade
Sale #2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027302727#!/compare/1592438400/1592870400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1592524800/1593475200
This could be 9k (like the previous history however this may/may not be the case)
Sale #3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1592524800/1593648000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993686702#!/compare/1593388800/1593734400
This could be the 10k sale, again because of the previous history, doesnt show another sale for other shako...
Sale #4:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993686702#!/compare/1597190400/1597276800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198435910989#!/compare/1596758400/1597276800
Looks to have been sold for some taunts -> Non-craftable schadenfraude (b.o 1.82k) + pro ks claid (highest b.o 45.88 ref) + square dance (b.o 44.44 ref) + kazotsky kick (b.o 3.53k) + burchester (b.o 3.14k) = ~10.36k (~10k)
https://backpack.tf/item/6540151623 -> Few sales and transfers
Sale #1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232838504#!/compare/1590278400/1591056000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137944431#!/compare/1590364800/1590451200
Unusual was sold with 9k but the previous owner didnt receive anything (not the 21k as histories dont match) - untraceable?
Sale #2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137944431#!/compare/1590451200/1590624000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271040599#!/compare/1590364800/1590537600
Sold for 8k (history of keys confirm this however Teddy's bp doesnt show the keys, likely he brought something with them the same day...)
Sale #3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271040599#!/compare/1590537600/1590710400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386195044#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600
Untraceable as to what it sold for...
Sale #4: (after the transfers) - sold to scraptf bot
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386195044#!/compare/1594944000/1596067200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1594684800/1595203200
Untraceable as to what it sold for...
Sale #5:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1596153600/1596240000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141097641#!/compare/1563321600/1596499200
Untraceable...
https://backpack.tf/item/3454982206 -> Several sales
Sale #1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107344329#!/compare/1594512000/1594684800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103063056#!/compare/1594598400/1596153600
Untraceable as to what it sold for...
Sale #2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103063056#!/compare/1596153600/1596326400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199003998081#!/compare/1594684800/1596931200
Untraceable as to what it sold for, thought it was the 11/14k sale, histories dont match. Candygamers bp was poorly updated around time of sale as well...
Sale #3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199003998081#!/compare/1597190400/1597449600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127464379#!/compare/1597190400/1597276800
Untraceable as to what it sold for, the 11k removal doesnt match with histories...
Sale #4:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127464379#!/compare/1597276800/1597363200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352427247#!/compare/1597276800/1597363200
Untraceable as to what it sold for...
Marketplace sales: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30017;5;u18
July 20th @ 24.99 / 1.95 = 12.81k (~13k)
August 16th @ 26.99 / 1.79 = 15.07k (~15k)
Total sales:
9k -> x2?
10k -> x2?
10k (items)
8k
13k
15k
The 13k/15k are likely high here, best range for this would be 8-10k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1596153600/1596240000 - scrap.tf sold for 13 keys here (ID's match)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127464379#!/compare/1597276800/1597363200 - twatt elf + ~5 keys in sweets
Elf mini:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127464379#!/compare/1597363200/1597449600
7 keys 24 ref -- only sale I can trace there, should be an free suggestion at 7.5 for that
7.5 + 5 = 12.5
= 13
idk this is weird,
https://backpack.tf/item/8034071854
https://backpack.tf/item/7956722893
are basically the same history, and they seem to be sold together at every trade so every sale of them would be on the bulky side. Also, Carter is a tf2trade.ru bot, and that site has a credits system, meaning you can sell stuff at one time to get a balance, and then buy stuff later with that balance so trades you see might not be balanced because credits could be used.
So were realistically left with
8
13 (x3)
15
I would probably just go 13 flat for a conservative drop calling 8 low and 15 high
Alrighty then, I will do a resuggest later on, thanks for the help, I was honestly confused about those histories 😂