Stormy Storm Berliner's Bucket Helm

Re-suggestion: thanks 42 and xergoyf for the help

Item Tracing:

Item: https://backpack.tf/item/1593270823

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198365678549#!/compare/1592870400/1593043200

No keys trace, if anyone knows Zol's buyout please tell me.

Item: https://backpack.tf/item/874032443 - Jarool has had it for the last 6 months

Item: https://backpack.tf/item/790227141 - "listed 1 day ago" has had it since january 2019

Marketplace: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/303;5;u29

1 seller at $30 - Has had the hat since 2018

Key Prices: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Sales:

August 11: $29/1.84 = 16

Jul 21: $16.5/1.95 = 8.5

Jul 12: $30/1.98 = 15

Jun 30: $30/2.01 = 15

Jun 19: $25.9/1.98 = 13

Jun 14: $25.9/1.99 = 13

I don't like marketplace sales because I feel like they are very high, but whatever.

There have been 3 sales recently over 14 keys, but Jarool has been unable to sell it for 14 keys for 6 months, doesn't this seem odd?

The problem is there are SO many sales above 14 keys, that it feels wrong to not include them, 3 out of the last 4 sales were above 14 keys.

Going with 13-16 keys here.

As always please correct me if I did something wrong, I am still pretty new to this.

dw about it

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396066175#!/compare/1594166400/1596672000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1594080000/1594166400

dumped to stn

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1595635200/1596067200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163392665#!/compare/1594684800/1596326400

11 keys - https://imgur.com/a/ZJZkD57 stn shows 11 keys 7 ref, shd b close enough

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163392665#!/compare/1594684800/1596326400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259807687#!/compare/1594425600/1596326400

11 resold for 9 in a week but multiple other sales at 11, including

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259807687#!/compare/1596499200/1596585600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309034307#!/compare/1596412800/1596585600

13 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322035911#!/compare/1596153600/1596326400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832868465#!/compare/1587945600/1596326400

12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832868465#!/compare/1587945600/1596326400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198392141813#!/compare/1596240000/1596326400

went with 12 keys and !half a key of sweets for strange kritzkrieg, wouldnt use this sale here (it’s 15 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198392141813#!/compare/1596326400/1596412800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129143307#!/compare/1596240000/1596326400

10 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129143307#!/compare/1596931200/1597017600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162231649#!/compare/1596758400/1597363200

went with gfetti fed fighting and rockets skating scorcher for snowblinded provisions cap + refragmenting yule hog

bulky, wouldnt use here

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198365678549#!/compare/1592870400/1593043200

8 keys but i doubt zol sold for that low, with no snapshots nth we can do

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396499936#!/compare/1590278400/1590364800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119544562#!/compare/1590278400/1590364800

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119544562#!/compare/1590796800/1590969600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029568303#!/compare/1590883200/1590969600

10 keys 3.33 ref rounding to 10 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029568303#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198239242582#!/compare/1592438400/1592524800

bunch of ref on seller's end, keys on the buyer's end, should round to 11

(sales below on spec ks variant)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198302622358#!/compare/1590883200/1595030400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080935708#!/compare/1591488000/1592006400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080935708#!/compare/1597449600/1597536000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198416157114#!/compare/1597190400/1597536000

wood bat hat, may need mini but this may be high here since this one is spec ks glitched

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198416157114#!/compare/1597536000/1597622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096022249#!/compare/1597449600/1597622400

ctfl pecularity indate at 13.5 rounding to 14

https://imgur.com/a/J5uYY3Q

bot.tf sales

1x at 10 keys 50 ref rounding to 11

1x at 9 keys 20 ref rounding to 9.5

1x at 10 keys 4 ref rounding to 10

sales

9

9.5

10 (3x)

11 (3x)

12

13

14

your mp sales

8.5

13

13

15

15

16

Classies - https://imgur.com/a/Llu8tYL

2x young at 15

buyers at 10.76 keys, excluding 10 and below

id go 11-16 here

Thanks xergoyf for answering some questions:

The range here is too unbalanced, as there are 6 sales being called low but none being called high. As you pointed out, Jarool had been selling for forever at 14, which points to the sales at higher being high outliers, and as 42 mentioned, mp sales tend to be higher, often being high outliers.

I would call the 14/15/16 high here because of this. The 14 sale is actually a 13.5, which could be rounded down, which would then only exclude the 15/16 mp sales.

11 - 13 should be better here