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Sales
Sale 1: Sold for 18 keys + 11 refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1595548800/1596067200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1595376000/1595721600
18 keys~
Sale 2: 19 keys?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000
B/o was 20, the 19 do not match regardless.
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4J93206X
Sale 3: Untrace/Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087763379#!/compare/1594684800/1596326400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199031142463#!/compare/1595894400/1596153600
Sale 4: Sold for 19 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137909800#!/compare/1593388800/1593475200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087763379#!/compare/1592956800/1593734400
Sale 5: Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081172172#!/compare/1592697600/1592784000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600
Sale 6: Sold for Blizzardy Noble Nickel (11.5~)+ 6 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143085434#!/compare/1597449600/1597536000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076771380#!/compare/1597449600/1597536000
11.5 + 6 = 18~
Sale 7: Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150761393#!/compare/1597968000/1598054400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054270952#!/compare/1597968000/1598054400
Sale 8: Sold with 2 keys for Cloud9 Company Man (20.5 keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198954908705#!/compare/1597881600/1597968000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150761393#!/compare/1597881600/1597968000
20.5 - 2 = 19 keys~
Sale 9: 20 keys?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140151738#!/compare/1597881600/1597968000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198954908705#!/compare/1597881600/1597968000
Histories/ID's do not match, but the b/o was same
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WX236Q0
Sale 10: 19 keys?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1597881600/1597968000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140151738#!/compare/1597795200/1597881600
No buyout found, nothing matches.
Sale 11: Traced 35 refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099243560#!/compare/1597881600/1598140800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1597795200/1597881600
Sale 12: Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053809624#!/compare/1592611200/1593043200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200
Sale 13: Sold with sweets for Hearts Shanter
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236030772#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053809624#!/compare/1592006400/1592611200
Using over there: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f414c63a96f3f36af552052
Sale 14: Sold for DP Citizen Cane + 3 keys + 9 refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077730629#!/compare/1591660800/1591747200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236030772#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600
The cane is unpriced, and with fewer sales, gonna use there.
Sale 15: Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087448314#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077730629#!/compare/1591660800/1591747200
Sale 16: Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418349197#!/compare/1591228800/1591315200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087448314#!/compare/1591142400/1591228800
Other exchanges, such as tradebacks, mannco, scrap, qs store, and etc.
https://backpack.tf/item/9052191851
https://backpack.tf/item/8427227267
https://backpack.tf/item/6931249079
https://backpack.tf/item/9086926739
Marketplace
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30658;5;u16
Nothing recent.
Classifieds
https://gyazo.com/4b75fec7a627f29277375d7475b4ccef
Summary
Sales at 18, 19, 19, and 20.
Conclusion
Going with 18-20 here.
eh idk about the 20 sale, compares are pretty messy and there were multiple bot sellers at 19, probably didn't sell for 20, but if it did it doesn't really represent the market when you could of instantly bought for 19.
Also in sale 1, it was most likely 18 keys ~33 ref since the buy order was at that price here https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLVJ2E1O Idk why buyers were so high then.
Sale 2 was also likely sold to a buy order for 16.
New mp sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30658;5;u16
$39.73 / $1.84 = 21.59 keys
$40.13 / $1.83 = 21.93 keys
At least 1 (maybe both) of these was Natali's/D Alex's aka had a b/o of 19
https://backpack.tf/item/8427227267
https://backpack.tf/item/7092067269
https://imgur.com/a/GWCJpqM - bot.tf stats: sale 1 was actually 18 keys ~44 ref, confirms 16 purchase as well
Overall buys at 15, 16 17, + the ~19 one
I guess 19 flat is fine, given how high buyers had gotten I don't think stretching the low-end to 17 or something is worth it here.
Hm, okay, will go with 19 flat then. Thanks.